Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin are back with insights following iGB L!VE, diving into the World Cup, Europe, and significant developments in Dutch gambling tax. They start by discussing how a tax increase in the Netherlands has fallen short of expectations. The duo also brings updates about Ireland’s new licensing regulations.
**World Cup Prediction Market Activity**
H2 has been monitoring activity in prediction markets during the World Cup. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo attracted the most bets among countries that did not win the tournament, while France, Spain, and Portugal emerged as the favorites among teams anticipated to claim victory.
An intriguing discovery surrounds the matches that generated the highest losing trades. The analysis reveals surprising similarities that seem to favor traditional sportsbooks, suggesting that prediction markets misjudged these match outcomes.
**Reality Check on Dutch Gambling Tax Hike**
In the Netherlands, the government is implementing a gambling tax increase in two stages—first to 34.2% in January 2025 and then to 37.8% by January 2026. The Treasury expected these changes to yield an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026.
However, actual revenue projections are much lower: only €2 million extra is anticipated in 2025, followed by an estimated €57 million in 2026. Ed emphasizes that the reduced taxable base cannot solely be attributed to the tax rate; new deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and the cooling-off period after Euro 2024 all contributed to this decline.
The tax hike has evidently affected physical gaming venues, resulting in an approximate 11% decrease in visits to casinos and gaming halls year-over-year. Multiple operators have reported closures coinciding with the tax increase. The hosts suggest that such tax increases do not always yield the expected outcomes for governments.
**Updates on Ireland’s New Licensing Regime**
The conversation shifts to Ireland, where a new licensing regime under GRAI began on July 1. While 89% of online betting is currently conducted through onshore operators, only 35% of the complete market is regulated due to the predominance of offshore iGaming.
Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have stepped up to facilitate operators in navigating this transition. Estimated values for the market may rise as regulations evolve further, as revealed in this episode.
**Highlight from iGB L!VE: Africa Summit**
Robin shares his key takeaway from the show, focusing on the Africa Summit, which united regulators from various countries, including Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, alongside representatives from the African Tax Administration Forum.
This summit featured a high-level session led by the African iGaming Alliance, where discussions revolved around sustainable taxation, channelization, and player protection, marking progress towards an Africa Safer Gambling Week.
As the session concluded, Ed, who moderated a tax panel at the summit, posed a thought-provoking question: if operators in certain markets are able to adjust to or evade harsh tax rates, can the industry maintain a credible stance against high taxation in other locations?
