A second officer from the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has been arrested for allegedly trading on war markets at Polymarket, following the earlier arrest of another officer in February. The Israeli news outlet N12 reported the recent arrest on Sunday, highlighting that this officer, like the first, faces scrutiny over his betting activities related to military actions.
Earlier this year, an IAF officer and a civilian, Omar Ziv, were taken into custody for allegedly sharing classified military information. The unnamed officer reportedly provided Ziv with sensitive details that were utilized to place bets on Polymarket's war-related markets. In this new case, however, the latest officer is not accused of sharing information with anyone else, suggesting he engaged in wagering independently.
In a previous court session following his arrest in February, the first officer, whose identity is withheld for security reasons, argued that "everyone in the force" participates in betting on prediction markets. A judge turned down his request for house arrest in May, and he remains detained as investigations continue. The court noted that his claims about gambling being prevalent in the military do not mitigate his alleged wrongdoing.
Details on the types of bets the second officer may have placed on Polymarket have yet to be released. N12 states that he is facing charges of breach of trust, a more lenient accusation compared to the first officer, who is charged with selling classified military information.
In assessing the situation, the judge handling the first officer's case remarked, "This is not just a ‘gambling story,’ but a serious treatise of wrongful acts committed out of a pursuit of excitement and lust for financial gain, while completely ignoring their consequences and the most basic moral and ethical norms."
The first officer allegedly provided Ziv with inside information regarding a military operation against Iran last June. Ziv is accused of relaying this classified info to at least five other individuals via WhatsApp, cautioning them to remain silent to avoid potential legal repercussions.
Ziv's activities on Polymarket drew attention online as he profited substantially from wagers linked to Israeli military actions, accruing over $160,000 from his predictions. An account nicknamed "ricosuave666" previously made headlines for accurately predicting the date of an Israeli strike on Iran, earning $154,000 and resurfaced on Polymarket with substantial bets on future operations.
The indictment highlights that Ziv reportedly deleted incriminating messages and altered positions after his account was flagged for suspicious activity. Other accounts also under scrutiny reportedly generated over $1.2 million from wagers tied to a military strike in February that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at which time the first officer was already in police custody.
Despite these arrests, Polymarket continues to facilitate betting on Israeli military actions. Trading such bets is banned in the United States, leading lawmakers to propose the DEATH BETS Act in March. Polymarket, however, operates through its international platform, remaining accessible to users in Israel.
In 2023, the IAF conducted several military operations, creating numerous opportunities for insider betting. Overall, users have engaged in over $7 million worth of trades on the extent of military actions executed by Israel. Additionally, $26 million has changed hands over predictions of the duration of ceasefires between Israel and Iran, alongside markets regarding potential strikes on Beirut and Yemen, among others.
Lawmakers are also pressing the CFTC to rein in prediction market operators regarding wagers on wildfires, although these markets have not been active since January 2022. Limited action has been directed at Polymarket concerning war markets, and Israeli authorities have not initiated any legal moves against the platform despite the recent arrests.
Moreover, an Israeli journalist disclosed that he received death threats from users on Polymarket after reporting on Israel's military conflict with Iran. Some users accused Emanuel Fabian of publishing articles to gain financially from betting on corresponding markets, with one threatening harm if his reporting did not change.
