Derek Stevens, the owner of three Las Vegas casinos, including Circa Sports, is carving out a niche for himself as a bold leader in the redevelopment of Downtown Vegas. He takes a strong stance against prediction markets, labeling them as "thieves" in a recent conversation coinciding with the opening of two new floors at Circa, an impressive 60-story hotel and casino complex on Fremont Street.
The Circa Sportsbook is the centerpiece of the resort, recognized as the world's largest sportsbook, spanning three floors with massive screens that can display up to 19 games simultaneously, along with live betting odds. Forbes highlights that Circa generates more gambling revenue than all three Boyd Gaming properties on Fremont combined, which is notable amid a decline in Vegas visitor numbers.
"We've got a very nice product," Stevens remarked. "I think we have a great property and people appreciate the hospitality here."
The resort also features Stadium Swim, the largest pool in Las Vegas, complete with a 143-foot TV screen.
Stevens operates in stark contrast to the rising popularity of prediction markets, particularly in Nevada, where he argues these platforms sidestep essential taxes and regulations affecting traditional sportsbooks. He described the operators of these markets as "pirates and thieves," claiming they do not pay federal excise taxes, state-mandated gaming taxes, or contribute to problem gambling funds.
He compares their business model to stealing: "If I was someone who hijacked a truck full of televisions and sold them at a discount, I’d still be a thief. Just because these markets are avoiding taxes doesn’t make them heroes."
Stevens believes contracts surrounding sports events resemble betting and claims that 85% to 90% of activities on Kalshi and Polymarket, two notable prediction markets, effectively constitute sports betting. There is growing legal resistance against prediction markets, with state judges ruling against them in 31 out of 37 cases. Michigan, Washington, and Connecticut have moved to block operators like Kalshi, and the Supreme Court could potentially decide on the legality of sports event contracts in the future. Should they gain approval, Stevens warns it could dramatically impact state tax revenues, especially in places like New York and Illinois.
Despite some favorable legal actions for prediction markets, Stevens remains skeptical about their future, saying, "There are too many states that would lose substantial revenue. I still believe a more sensible resolution will emerge." Recently, 44 state attorneys general submitted a letter urging the CFTC to retract its proposal to allow sports markets.
As for Circa, Stevens clarifies their stance: they will not engage with prediction markets, contrasting with companies like DraftKings that have embraced this model. He noted, "DraftKings may not be able to become licensed in Nevada because of their actions." Several major casino operators, including Caesars and MGM, are adopting a similar approach, viewing prediction markets as unregulated sports betting.
Stevens emphasizes the importance of asserting legal standing against prediction markets, arguing that they circumvent regulations that protect consumers. He believes the CFTC lacks the appropriate expertise to regulate this sector, stating that state gaming commissions have far greater regulatory capability.
Looking ahead, Stevens thinks prediction markets could meet a fate similar to sweepstakes casinos, which have faced increased prohibition efforts and criminal charges in various states, including Nevada. While the future remains uncertain, efforts to block prediction markets are continuing, though Stevens acknowledges there is no guarantee they will follow the same path as sweepstakes.
Circa's online operations are set to launch in Arizona next year, and while Stevens is open to continuing expansion, he stresses that it hinges on the regulatory environment and the status of prediction markets. Despite hesitation to declare a full recovery for Las Vegas, he remains positive about the city's long-term prospects, affirming, "We’re very bullish on Las Vegas in the long term." Currently, Circa stands out as one of the few venues in the country where prediction markets have not taken root.
