Data from Blask reveals the immediate consequences of the recent iGaming ban in Brazil, the largest market by user demand globally. Brazil leads the rankings among 142 countries surveyed by Blask, showing that since the regulated market launched on January 1, 2025, more than 96% of user interest was captured by onshore brands. However, just four days following the publication of the ban, the share of offshore brands surged to nearly 10%. Concurrently, coverage of affiliates for the most widely promoted brands plummeted by 41.5% in just one week.
From the beginning of the regulated market until September 24, 2026, offshore operators accounted for only 3.9% of Brazil's iGaming demand based on Blask's metrics, with their share at 3.4% right before the ban was issued. After the ban was enforced, the offshore share consistently increased, climbing to 9.9% on September 29, marking the highest level since the regulated market commenced.
Ricardo Bianco Rosada, the founder of brmkt.co and a veteran in the gaming industry since 2001, anticipates that players will gravitate towards the illegal market once licensed sites cease operations on October 6. He noted that the illegal market has been part of Brazil's landscape, operating alongside licensed sites for two years. "The ban does not create that market. It hands it the other 30 million customers, the ones who until now were betting on sites that could see them," Rosada stated.
The ban also effectively dismantles Brazil's regulated betting affiliate market, impacting intermediation and advertising alongside the licensed operators. By September 29, the top 20 promoted brands had their affiliate coverage drop to 418 sites, down from 715 just a week prior, constituting a 41.5% decrease with each brand experiencing a loss.
Bet365, which was the leading brand in promotion during August, suffered the largest decline in coverage, dropping from 60 to 31 affiliate sites. Other brands like Brazino777, Novibet, and Sportingbet experienced similar declines.
Despite Stake becoming the most promoted brand, it too saw a reduction in coverage from 51 to 38 sites. Meanwhile, Betano, which leads the market by user demand, was listed on 33 sites, a decrease of 15 compared to the previous week. Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, highlighted that the ban prohibits the use of affiliate links, sponsored posts, and betting bonus codes regardless of the payment model. He noted, "Affiliates that depend only on Brazil are under the most pressure," suggesting that diversifying into other regions is essential. He warned that targeting Brazilian audiences through alternative channels exposes affiliates to potential fines up to 10% of their total turnover.
In summary, just days after the ban took effect, the share of offshore brands in Brazil's iGaming market soared to a high of 9.9%, while affiliate coverage for major brands diminished significantly. Although licensed sites are still operational for withdrawals, the surrounding market is already contracting.
