As the NFL regular season kicked off, prediction markets reached new heights. Kalshi and Polymarket significantly contributed to this trend by surpassing a combined total of $1 billion in trading activity during the first week of the season. Kalshi dominated the scene with a trading volume of $983.4 million, as reported by DeFi Rate. This surge coincided with the Kansas City Chiefs' commanding 31-10 victory over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football, marking an unprecedented week for prediction markets.
The momentum was evident even before the highly anticipated NFL matchup, with forecasts indicating that previous trading records were set to be broken. The overall volume for the week reached a record $15.9 billion, reflecting a 16% increase from the previous week, according to Bank of America.
In terms of market performance, Kalshi maintained its position, though its market share dropped to 82% for the week ending September 13, down from 86% the week prior. Despite this decline, Kalshi held a considerable lead over Polymarket, which remained its closest competitor. Notably, Polymarket achieved 762,000 app downloads, surpassing Kalshi, DraftKings, and FanDuel. This figure represents a staggering increase of 13,509% week-over-week, amounting to 25% of total downloads in its category, as stated by Polymarket.
Meanwhile, other operators also recorded significant growth compared to Labor Day weekend, which had featured college football but lacked NFL games. DraftKings and Underdog reported impressive increases of 125% and 119%, respectively, while Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Novig saw rises of at least 30%, with Polymarket leading this group with a 46% increase.
Interestingly, Kalshi’s trading volume on the previous Sunday was only $34 million higher than typical daily figures, a deviation highlighted by Bank of America. This anomaly is believed to stem from Kalshi being heavily focused on college sports, according to BofA's analyst Shaun Kelley. He also noted that enhancements at Robinhood, which recently acquired a minority stake in Crypto.com, may have contributed to the dip in Kalshi’s numbers.
In the week’s trading landscape, Crypto.com reported a week-long trading volume of $350 million, which constituted a 41% growth. The PM Pulse, partnered with Aldrin Research, indicated that while Kalshi and Polymarket collectively drove more than $15 billion in action, several other platforms managed to record volumes above $300 million. Novig notably increased its trading volume by nearly 34%, buoyed by an enticing advertisement featuring Sydney Sweeney.
Looking ahead, prediction markets could benefit from high-profile matchups set for Week 2. The Buffalo Bills will host the Detroit Lions at their brand-new Highmark Stadium, which carries a price tag of $2.2 billion. This event is likely to stoke enthusiasm among the “Bills Mafia,” potentially boosting prediction market totals. Additionally, the week will wrap up with a Monday Night Football face-off between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, who are viewed as strong contenders for the Super Bowl. As of Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi indicated that the Rams had a 75% probability of defeating the Giants, setting the stage for what Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart called a "great test" for their team.
