In 2025, Brazilian households faced losses of BRL62.5 billion ($12.5 billion) to betting operators, according to a recent study. Simultaneously, these operators facilitated BRL350.97 billion in transactions through Pix, the country’s instant cash transfer system.
This analysis emerged from the third edition of Brazil's Fiscal Bulletin, compiled by Comsefaz (National Committee of Secretaries of Finance) in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. The findings surpassed figures reported by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), Brazil’s betting regulator.
Additionally, an investigation by the market intelligence firm LCA Consultores, commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), suggested that illicit betting operations made up between 41% and 51% of the overall market. This variance led to a notable discrepancy of BRL25.6 billion between estimates from Comsefaz and the Ministry of Finance—approximately 41% of the total reported by Comsefaz, which aligns with LCA's lower estimate.
The analysis, detailed in the Brazilian newspaper Folha, indicated that the regulation of betting operators influenced a significant shift in Pix transactions from individuals to businesses across various sectors, including arts, culture, sports, and recreation.
The BRL62.5 billion figure represents the net transaction value, calculated as the total amount wagered minus the winnings paid out. This amount accounts for roughly 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households, revealing the growing impact of betting activities on their financial situations.
The report examined the effects of regulated betting operators on Pix transactions from October 2024 through March 2026. By estimating how the volume of transfers to businesses would have evolved without this regulatory change, the researchers could determine the attributable impact of betting operations.
However, the authors clarified that their statistical simulation does not establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship. Notably, the study pointed out that a prohibition on betting for Bolsa Família recipients contributed to a deceleration in transaction growth, aligning estimated transfer volumes more closely with actual figures observed. This underlines the significant role lower-income families play in Brazil's online sports betting market.
