A recent study revealed that Brazilian households lost a staggering BRL62.5 billion (approximately $12.5 billion) to betting operators in 2025. Concurrently, these companies processed BRL350.97 billion in transactions through the Pix instant cash transfer system.
This information is outlined in the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, which presents figures surpassing those reported by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), the regulatory body overseeing betting in Brazil. The study was conducted by Comsefaz, the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. It incorporated data from the Central Bank, EPAE (Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity), along with the researchers’ own computations.
In terms of illegal gambling, a report by LCA Consultores, a market intelligence firm in São Paulo, estimated that underground betting operations comprised between 41% and 51% of the overall market. The discrepancy between the Comsefaz estimate of BRL62.5 billion and the Ministry of Finance's BRL36.9 billion revealed a gap of BRL25.6 billion, which accounts for roughly 41% of the total projected by Comsefaz, aligning with LCA’s lower estimate.
Additionally, the Brazilian newspaper Folha noted that the regulation of betting operators correlated with a structural change in Pix transfers from individuals to businesses within various sectors, including arts and sports. The BRL62.5 billion figure denoted the net transaction value, calculated as the amount wagered minus winnings returned. This amount represents approximately 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households, suggesting that the rise of betting operations is beginning to influence the financial behavior of Brazilian families.
The report also assessed the effects of regulated betting operators on Pix transactions spanning from October 2024 to March 2026. The researchers modeled expected transfer volumes from individuals to businesses in the arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors under the assumption that regulations had not been implemented, and compared these projections with actual recorded figures. The difference between the two estimates was interpreted as the impact attributed to betting operators.
Since this analysis was a statistical simulation, the authors clarified that the resulting data does not necessarily indicate a definitive cause-and-effect relationship. Furthermore, the report pointed out that banning betting activities for Bolsa Família beneficiaries contributed to a slowdown in transaction growth, thus aligning estimated transfer volumes more closely with observed figures. This suggests that lower-income families significantly participate in Brazil’s online sports betting market.
