In 2025, Brazilian families experienced significant financial setbacks, losing BRL62.5 billion (approximately $12.5 billion) to gambling operators, according to a recent study. During the same period, these betting platforms processed an impressive BRL350.97 billion in transactions using Pix, Brazil's instant cash transfer system.
This analysis was part of the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, which revealed figures surpassing those released by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), Brazil's regulatory authority for gambling. This study was conducted by Comsefaz, the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. Researchers utilized data from the Central Bank, EPAE (the Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity), and their own calculations.
Further complicating the landscape, a separate study by the São Paulo-based market intelligence firm LCA Consultores, commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), estimated that illegal betting constituted about 41% to 51% of the overall market. The divergence between the estimates from Comsefaz, which pegged losses at BRL62.5 billion, and those from the Ministry of Finance, which estimated BRL36.9 billion, revealed a notable BRL25.6 billion gap. This gap represented approximately 41% of the total as per Comsefaz's report, aligning with LCA’s lower range projections.
As reported by the Brazilian newspaper Folha, the study also noted that the regulation of betting operators aligned with a significant shift in Pix transfers aimed at businesses in the cultural, artistic, sports, and recreational sectors. The loss of BRL62.5 billion indicated the net value of transactions (total wagers minus winnings paid out) and accounted for about 0.68% of the disposable income for Brazilian households, highlighting the growing financial impact of betting on families in Brazil.
Focusing on the Pix transfer system, the study assessed the consequences of regulated betting activities on transactions from October 2024 to March 2026. Researchers had projected transfer volumes to businesses in the arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors had the regulation not been implemented. By comparing these projections against actual data, they could estimate the influence of betting operators.
It's important to note that the findings stem from statistical simulations and do not confirm a direct cause-and-effect relationship. The study further revealed that a ban on betting for beneficiaries of Bolsa Família, Brazil's social welfare program, resulted in a decrease in transaction growth, bringing estimates closer to actual transfer volumes. The findings suggest that lower-income families play a significant role in Brazil's online sports betting landscape.
