A recent study reveals that Brazilian families lost a staggering BRL62.5 billion (approximately $12.5 billion) to gambling operators in 2025. This figure marks a significant concern, particularly when contextualized against the BRL350.97 billion in overall transactions managed through Pix, the country's instant cash transfer system.
This information is highlighted in the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, showing that losses from betting exceed those reported by Brazil’s Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), the body that regulates gambling in the nation.
Commissioned by the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy, the study draws on data from the Central Bank and the Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity (EPAE), along with calculations made by the research team.
Concerns about the underground gambling market are also underscored in the findings. Research from LCA Consultores, a São Paulo-based market intelligence agency, suggested that illicit betting activities account for between 41% and 51% of the total market. The BRL25.6 billion difference between Comsefaz’s estimate of BRL62.5 billion and the Ministry of Finance's estimate of BRL36.9 billion aligns closely with LCA's projection.
Additionally, a report in the Brazilian daily Folha notes that regulation of betting operators appears to have coincided with changes in Pix transfers from individuals to businesses spanning arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors.
The reported BRL62.5 billion in losses refers to the net value of transactions, calculated as the money wagered minus the winnings paid out, which equated to roughly 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households. This data suggests that the expanding betting industry is starting to influence the financial situations of families across Brazil.
The analysis particularly scrutinized the effects of regulated betting operations on Pix transactions recorded between October 2024 and March 2026. Researchers created a model to anticipate the volume of transfers that would have occurred in the absence of regulatory changes and compared it to actual figures. The gap between these numbers indicated the influence of betting operators on transaction volumes.
While the findings are based on statistical simulations, the authors clarified that this does not establish a definitive cause-and-effect relationship. They noted that a prohibition on betting for recipients of Bolsa Família, a social welfare program, slowed the growth of transactions, ultimately bringing the estimated transfer volume more in line with observed data. This suggests that lower-income families significantly engage in Brazil's online sports betting environment.
