On Tuesday, the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service unveiled its tax collection figures for the first eight months of 2026. Between January and August, the government collected BRL2.11 trillion ($411.2 million), marking an increase of nearly 12% compared to the same timeframe in 2025. Notably, the revenue from games and betting rose sharply, climbing by 69.25% during this period. The total collected from the betting sector amounted to BRL9.91 billion.
However, a monthly comparison reveals a 20.5% decline in August revenue compared to July. The inflow from betting in August was BRL1.163 billion, down from BRL1.463 billion in the previous month. January recorded the highest revenue of the year, approaching BRL1.5 billion.
Following the revenue dips in February and March—affected in part by the seasonal impact of Carnival—there was a resurgence starting in April, with July nearly reaching the January figures. Still, August saw a significant reduction, likely influenced by rising criticism of the betting industry. Compounding this downturn was August's status as the first full month without the positive impact of the World Cup.
Projections suggested the industry might achieve a record revenue of BRL16 billion by the year's end. However, with the 20.5% drop in August and a trend toward stabilization of revenues, the actual total is more realistically expected to hover around BRL14 billion.
Concerns arise regarding the future of betting revenues, particularly if the government pursues its recently discussed initiative to ban online casinos—an action that could severely undercut the industry’s income. A significant portion of the betting sector's revenue stems from online platforms, and such a prohibition could reduce monthly revenues to approximately BRL600 million. In this scenario, total revenues might fall to around BRL12 billion by the end of 2026.
The reported revenue pertains to federal taxes associated with the betting sector, including Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ), Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL), and the Social Integration Programme/Contribution to Social Security Financing (PIS/Cofins). This total also accounts for direct taxation on gross revenue.
Despite generating nearly BRL10 billion in revenue, President Lula continues to threaten punitive measures against the betting industry. Should the government impose restrictions, it not only risks losing revenue but may also face legal repercussions. Potential litigation could lead to compensation claims that might exceed tenfold the revenue collected between January and August of this year.
The betting industry has expressed concerns that a ban could drive funds into illegal markets, compounding the negative impact on legitimate revenue streams.
