Tonight, the Raiders will compete against the Texans in Houston, and one of the main points of interest is how much playing time No. 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza will see. In his preseason debut, Mendoza participated in four series, completing 10 of 16 passes for 97 yards along with a short touchdown pass to Jack Bech, although the Raiders suffered a 27-14 defeat to Arizona.
On the Texans’ side, it’s worth noting that they feature one of the NFL’s top defenses. However, head coach DeMeco Ryans announced that key starters, including Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, and cornerback Derek Stingley, will not play.
Looking at the odds, the money line has shifted in favor of Las Vegas at Kalshi. For the match tonight, the moneyline stands as follows:
– Raiders 51% (-104)
– Texans 50% (+100)
As for the total points, the odds are:
– OVER 38.5 points: Yes 50% (+100), No 51% (-104)
For best bets, taking the UNDER at 38.5 (-104) appears favorable. According to a recent update from Kalshi News, Houston's starting quarterback CJ Stroud will not take the field. On the contrary, Las Vegas coach Klint Kubiak confirmed that veteran Kirk Cousins will start as quarterback, but Mendoza is expected to receive considerable playing time in relief.
Despite starting the season as a backup, Mendoza is still among the favorites for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. While the Texans may be resting their top defensive players, their second-string unit remains formidable. Jadeveon Clowney, who has returned to Houston, is anticipated to apply significant pressure on whichever quarterback plays for the Raiders tonight.
Analyzing both teams’ performances from their previous games casts doubt on the likelihood of high scoring. The Texans could muster only one touchdown during their 27-7 loss to the Chargers, and similarly, the Raiders managed just 14 points against a struggling Cardinals defense.
For player props to consider, backing Davis Mills to surpass 100 passing yards at +170 is intriguing. Mills, a capable backup, has substantial experience in the starting role, having made four starts last season while covering for an injured Stroud. All of those outings saw him surpass the 100-yard mark. In the preseason against the Chargers, Mills completed 9 of 15 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown.
With the Raiders’ secondary having yielded a total of 220 passing yards to the Cardinals last week, including 101 yards from Gardner Minshew, Mills is set to see major action after third-string quarterback Graham Mertz suffered a torn ACL in the matchup against Los Angeles. New recruit Brett Rypien is also expected to enter in the second half.
