Recent polling data indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro holds a slight edge over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 50.9% support compared to 49.1%. This statistic reflects an average from 13 surveys conducted between October 13 and 19, as reported by Congresso em Foco. Bolsonaro leads in 12 of those polls; however, his margin has diminished in recent comparisons.
Since October 9, Lula's advantage has shrunk from 5.6 percentage points to just 2.2. Specifically, the BTG/Nexus survey saw a decrease from 3.2 points to 0.6, and Datafolha’s figures dropped from a 4-point lead for Lula to just 2. Interestingly, Vox Brasil is the only polling firm currently indicating a lead for Lula, showing him at 51% against Bolsonaro's 49%.
There appears to be increasing awareness and support for the recent ban on betting, with a Quaest poll revealing that 64% of respondents were aware of the ban and approved of it, while an additional 8% expressed approval when informed about the measure. This combined approval rate of 72% marks an increase from 62% in a previous Quaest survey conducted at the end of September.
It is worthy of note that while the average polling results are reported, each polling organization is considered equally, without further analysis of the elections. Furthermore, shifts in polling numbers may not necessarily reflect statistical significance.
Public support for the betting ban is strong, with 78% approval according to Datafolha. However, a separate poll from Indexa/Broadcast found that 63% of voters felt that a candidate's stance on betting would not significantly influence their vote. Speculation exists among some of Lula’s supporters that the betting ban could negatively affect his popularity; however, its true impact remains uncertain, especially since betting was not discussed during the candidates’ debate on October 18.
The final televised debate is set for October 23 on TV Globo, just two days before the runoff election on October 25, which will determine Brazil's presidency following Bolsonaro's 47.03% and Lula’s 45.16% results in the first round.
