Turkiye will face the USA in the World Cup on Thursday, with kick-off at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on FOX. The match comes after the Americans topped Group D, while Turkiye has already been eliminated. Paraguay and Australia still vie for advancement from the group.
Polymarket's odds for the Turkey vs. USA matchup are as follows:
– Outcome Prediction: Turkiye 25% (+300), USA 54% (-117), Draw 23% (+335)
– USA to win by 1.5 goals 32% (+213)
– Over 2.5 goals scored 59% (-144)
The best bet for the match is to go with OVER 2.5 Goals (-144). Polymarket offers better odds for this outcome compared to DraftKings, which had it at -165 at the time.
The United States opened their tournament with a record-setting performance, scoring the most goals ever in a World Cup match, achieving a 4-1 victory over Paraguay, highlighted by two goals from Folarin Balogun. They followed that with a 2-0 win against Australia, securing their advancement to the knockout stage.
Tonight’s match raises a question: Will the US team ease off after clinching Group D, or will they push for their first-ever nine-point finish in group play? The expectation is for the latter, as maintaining momentum is crucial for manager Mauricio Pochettino's team heading into the knockout rounds. Although US star Christian Pulisic is considered fit to play, he may see limited minutes due to a calf injury.
The US team has other talented offensive players apart from Pulisic. Balogun has been in form, while Gio Reyna and Alex Freeman have also contributed goals. Weston McKennie adds to the midfield scoring threat.
Despite being eliminated, Turkiye is anticipated to bring a strong effort to tonight’s game under manager Vincenzo Montella, who has indicated that he will not resign following the match. Montella previously led Turkiye back to the World Cup after a 24-year hiatus. Fans can expect a spirited performance from both sides.
The prediction for the match: USA 2, Turkey 1.
A key player prop for the Turkey vs. USA game is Folarin Balogun scoring OVER 0.5 Goals (+257 odds, 28% implied probability at Polymarket). The odds reflect a price of 28 cents at prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, far better than DraftKings’ +135 odds. Given his previous scoring in the opener and opportunities against Australia, Balogun might be more likely to score tonight, as Turkiye has allowed ten shots on goal thus far.
