For over twenty years, Finland championed the notion that a single state-run gambling operator could effectively maximize revenue, minimize harm, and eliminate black market activity. However, this rationale unraveled by 2022. The channelization rate fell below 50%, annual contributions from Veikkaus, the state-owned operator, had dropped by half since 2017, and policymakers—from various political factions—began to admit, first quietly and then publicly, that maintaining a monopoly was indefensible.
Finland is now on the brink of becoming Europe’s latest licensed gambling market, but the start date for this competitive landscape remains unclear. The legislative process, which is supposed to align with the government's timeline, faces challenges due to political reluctance surrounding advertising, election timing, and regulatory readiness.
While Parliament debates schedules, operators are proactively assembling teams, seeking legal guidance, and crafting plans to enter the local market. Although modest in size compared to other European markets, this move has significant symbolic weight: a noticeable step into mainstream gambling for one of the last holdouts in the Nordic region.
Regarding the legislation, it is nearing completion. “The Finnish Parliament’s Administration Committee decided to conclude its hearings on 13 November and is now drafting its report,” explained Antti Koivula, chief compliance officer of Hippos ATG. He anticipates the report will be ready by mid-December, following which Parliament can quickly handle the necessary readings.
Independent consultant Jari Vähänen echoed Koivula's optimism about the bill's progress, saying, “Parliament is still considering the bill. The Administrative Committee is almost ready, and Parliament will have time to approve it this year, when the law will enter into force on 1 January 2026.”
Yet, concerns about the timetable have emerged. Pekka Ilmivalta from Nordic Legal pointed out a significant gap in the administrative committee's planning document, causing anxiety regarding deadlines. These delays stem from political considerations, with discussions suggesting a potential shift of the market opening from January 2027 to summer 2027, after Finland's parliamentary elections.
Operators are aware of the uncertainty. A representative from a major gambling firm indicated that the government is contemplating delaying the market opening until after the April elections. The hesitance appears rooted in fears among political leaders that pre-election gambling advertising might provoke backlash from the public. Even parties that support liberalization seem wary of making changes before the elections.
Observers generally expect delays—several weeks for legislative approval and a few months for market initiation. According to University of Helsinki researcher Janne Nikkinen, “Perhaps a delay of a few days or weeks; they’re mostly ironing out technical issues.” While there are no doubts about the law’s content, questions remain about its timeline.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Interior refrained from commenting on potential delays but confirmed via email that the Administrative Committee aims to finalize the report in November, with plans for it to move to the plenary session thereafter.
Despite delays in procedure, there is strong bipartisan agreement on the necessity for reform. “There has been broad cross-party consensus for a few years that the gambling market should be partially liberalized,” Koivula noted. While there are divergent views on advertising and harm prevention, agreement exists over the need for change.
Ilmivalta elaborated, stating, “The channelization of the monopoly is less than 50%, revenue for the Finnish government has declined, and at the same time, problem gambling has slightly increased. The current system simply no longer serves its purpose.”
The opposition lacks motivation to resist reform; Veikkaus itself acknowledged in 2022 that it was time to dismantle the monopoly. Nikkinen remarked, “Even the opposition isn't opposing the reform because Veikkaus itself signaled it no longer wants the monopoly.”
As for regulatory readiness, confidence is shaky. Koivula admitted, “I am not fully confident that the transition will be seamless.” The National Police Board is responsible for licensing until 2026, but Koivula cautioned that the new authority will need to hire many staff members, most of whom may lack experience in the gambling sector. He expressed doubts about whether the National Police Board can meet the transition challenges.
Nikkinen took a more pessimistic view, arguing that Finland’s model depends on the courts, which can delay enforcement processes. The new regulatory authority will operate within a regional agency that addresses unrelated areas such as animal welfare and alcohol licensing. “They won’t have the power to sanction directly. That’s a weakness,” he stated.
Contrastingly, Vähänen expressed optimism about staff transfers from the National Police Board and believes the technology project will be ready by 2026. Ilmivalta, while trusting in Finnish administrative ability, emphasized that preparations have lacked transparency and dialogue with the industry.
This results in a dual scenario: while operators gear up with determination, regulators are quietly attempting to catch up. Enforcement poses significant challenges, as noted by Koivula. He bluntly stated, “I foresee nothing but enforcement challenges. The enforcement toolbox provided to the regulator is highly insufficient for tackling black market operators.” This may lead to an unexpected consequence where enforcement actions primarily target licensed operators, simply due to their visibility and compliance.
Nikkinen highlighted gaps in legislation, noting that Finland lacks provisions for payment blocking, website blocking, and DNS blocking—all critical to combatting the black market. This results, he predicts, in ongoing issues with black market leakage, suggesting that further legislative adjustments might be needed by 2029 or 2030.
Ilmivalta shares these concerns: “There will always be those who choose not to join the regulated market, and the regulator’s tools are limited.” Although the introduction of B2B licensing in 2028 may assist, comprehensive solutions are expected to remain elusive.
Caution surrounds the perspectives of operators as well. Mika Kuismanen, CEO of the Finnish Gambling Association, Rahapeliala, cautioned that “the bill itself does not contain sufficient explicit tools to combat the black market,” warning that without adequate supervision focused solely on licensed companies, unlicensed operators may lack motivation to engage with the legal market.
Despite uncertainties within the regulatory framework, operator sentiment remains generally positive. “The industry as a whole has a positive feeling,” Kuismanen stated. He acknowledged the efficiency of the legislative process, although he noted that operators would still need to await more clarity before making thorough preparations.
Joel Hakamies, general manager for Finland and Estonia at FDJ/Kindred, shared this perspective, suggesting that while the broader outlook seems good, the lack of a definitive timeline creates challenges for investment planning.
Koivula confirmed that Hippos ATG is preparing vigorously for the transition, stating, “We are building a Helsinki-based organization, recruiting experts in product development, marketing, and customer support.” For Hippos ATG, liberalization in Finland carries not only commercial significance but also supports Finnish and Swedish horse racing, a model that sets it apart from competitors.
Ilmivalta observed diverse strategies among operators; some are establishing local entities while others prefer a more remote approach. He anticipates innovative branding efforts within the constraints of advertising regulations.
Advertising guidelines are evolving into a pivotal aspect of this reform, attracting considerable scrutiny. Critics noted that the government's responsible advertising clause is vague, leading even the Basic Law Committee to express doubts about its legal interpretations.
Nikkonen pointed out that Finnish media companies are exerting influence, while affiliates have faced bans, leading to an unequal playing field. He cautioned that traditional media—rather than online platforms—dominates consumer exposure, including among children.
Operators are divided on how restrictive the advertising framework will be. Kindred perceives the new regulations as relatively liberal, offering numerous opportunities for operators. Kuismanen shared a similar view, asserting that “almost all channels are available and there are no time limits.”
Analysts who spoke with iGB agree that Finland’s market changes will not radically transform the European landscape instantly. As Koivula stated, “In reality, the wider impact will be limited.” Vähänen and Kuismanen align with this sentiment.
Nonetheless, Finland holds symbolic significance: it is the first Nordic monopoly to transition since Sweden in 2019, prompting attention from Norway, which still upholds a strong monopoly. Nikkinen suggested that the outcomes in Finland will influence discussions in its neighboring country for years to come.
Looking ahead, Ilmivalta anticipates a gradual movement toward harmonization across Europe in the 2030s, motivated by efforts to control the black market and ensure safer gambling practices.
While the journey toward market opening is fraught with challenges, operators recognize Finland as a promising market, deeply ingrained in its cultural landscape. Hakamies affirmed, “Finland has been and will be an attractive gambling market. Definitely a major opportunity.”
The real test will not come in 2026 or 2027, but in the years that follow—when Finland must assess if its regulators can fulfill the intended goals of consumer protection and gambling channelization. For now, the industry remains vigilant, optimistic, and laying the groundwork for a transformative shift.
