George Santos, the former congressman, has received a permanent ban from trading on the prediction market Kalshi, as announced by the company late last week. This action came after an investigation found that Santos had manipulated contract prices related to his planned appearance at the 2026 State of the Union address. Alongside the ban, he has been fined $71,356.
Kalshi's compliance team discovered that Santos executed a series of substantial trades in February 2026, tied to contracts that would pay out based on his attendance at the State of the Union address scheduled for February 24. The exchange reported that Santos made misleading public statements about his attendance with the intent of influencing the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts regarding his participation. This manipulation led to price shifts in the market, with Santos profiting $17,839.57 from these trades. His account was subsequently frozen, and the case was referred to federal authorities regarding his activities.
Santos responded critically to the ban on X, stating, "Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for." He labeled Kalshi an "unserious company," claiming it violated its own guidelines and deadlines.
Kalshi enforced penalties under rules designed to align with federal market regulations, which include restrictions on trading when an individual can impact the event's outcome, using non-public information, and engaging in manipulative practices. The sanctions, effective from August 28, 2026, permanently restrict Santos from any direct or indirect trading access on the platform.
Earlier this year, Polymarket, another prediction market platform, ended its relationship with Santos amid a Department of Justice investigation into whether he had wagered on his attendance at the same State of the Union address. Last April, Santos was sentenced to 87 months in prison for felony wire fraud and check fraud, but he was granted clemency by former President Donald Trump after serving several months in 2025.
After his release from prison, he became an influencer for Polymarket.
Santos’ situation is the most serious among four disciplinary actions recently disclosed by Kalshi, which has been under heightened scrutiny regarding potential insider knowledge and manipulation by participants.
Other individuals have faced penalties for attempting to manipulate the prediction market. Ben Midgley, a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Maine, acknowledged purchasing contracts related to his own campaign and accepted a $5,434.30 fine along with a three-year suspension. Similarly, Laurie Buckhout, a candidate for a congressional seat in North Carolina, was fined $2,589.96 and received a three-year suspension, while billionaire Stephen Cloobeck was fined $31,770 and suspended for three years for purchasing around $10,000 in contracts tied to his gubernatorial campaign.
Each of these cases involved cooperation with Kalshi’s investigation, but what sets Santos apart are the additional allegations that he deliberately made false statements to manipulate market prices and his substantial profit from these activities. This violation of multiple rules led to a more severe penalty, including the permanent trading ban and a larger fine compared to others disciplined. Kalshi's Rule 5.17(z) expressly prohibits trading in contracts where participants possess decision-making authority or can otherwise influence the event underlying the contract, regardless of the degree of influence exerted.
