The Dutch government has concluded that the most effective gambling advertisement is none at all. In June, Cabinet members put forth plans for a near-total prohibition on online gambling advertisements, allowing only a few specific exceptions. This initiative, spearheaded by Claudia van Bruggen, the state secretary for legal protection, proposes significant measures that include the termination of signup bonuses like free bets, an overarching deposit cap affecting all operators, enhancements to the CRUKS self-exclusion register, and an increased focus on curbing illegal operations.
Van Bruggen expressed her concern about the rising number of individuals, especially youth, who engage in online gambling and face adverse consequences. "I find it particularly concerning that more and more people… have started gambling online and are getting into trouble as a result. It is high time to reverse this trend," she stated during the announcement of these measures.
This proposed legislation marks not just a new direction but continues the gradual tightening of regulations in the Dutch gambling landscape. Recent actions include a ban on celebrity endorsements in gambling ads, a prohibition on generalized advertising from July 2023, and an imposed ban on sports sponsorship starting July 2025. Each previous measure was designed to curb public exposure, yet officials have now concluded that these interventions did not sufficiently reduce visibility. When faced with ineffective policies, The Hague's response seems to be to escalate restrictions.
An essential aspect of this shift appears to be a departure from the earlier goal of channelisation—redirecting players to accredited and supervised operators. Justin Franssen, a partner at Amsterdam's Franssen Tolboom law firm, suggests that the goal has been explicitly abandoned, highlighting that the previous state secretary, Teun Struycken, hinted at this transition. "The new mantra is the prevention of gambling harm," he remarked.
The tragedy of this retreat from channelisation comes at a time when past policies have reportedly failed. The Kingdom's gaming regulator, the KSA, accepted that the legal market now accounts for only about 49% of gross gaming revenue, while associations estimated that the black market made up nearly a quarter of all gambling activity in the Netherlands. Licensed operators argue that high taxation—currently set at 37.8%—coupled with the very advertising limits the government seeks to enhance, are to blame for this market erosion.
Franssen questioned the effectiveness of a total advertising ban, stating, "It's a very simple answer, there is no evidence that it will succeed." He noted that the KSA has voiced concerns regarding the total ban, recommending against it. Given that approximately 95% of gambling advertisements on Dutch social media are already illegal, he believes the proposed blanket ban is misguided.
In June, the VNLOK trade association initiated legal action against Meta and filed a complaint with the European Commission regarding an influx of illegal adverts. In the last quarter of 2025, VNLOK reported over 70,000 gambling advertisements across Meta platforms, with more than 95% from unauthorized operators; less than 5% of these ads were removed. The KSA files many complaints with Meta each month, yet these ads tend to return swiftly after a brief removal. The VNLOK now estimates the illegal gambling market in the Netherlands exceeds €1 billion annually, paralleling the regulated sector.
"What you ultimately achieve with a total ban is to hand the entire stage to illegal operators while preventing licensed operators from informing consumers that a legal, regulated and protected alternative exists," Franssen argued. He considers this approach one of the worst policy decisions witnessed in years.
Denmark provides a cautionary tale for the Netherlands. There, regulators opted against a total ban but enacted tighter regulations last October, including limiting ads during live sports broadcasts, on public transport, and around schools, capping promotions for those under 25 and phasing out free-bet offers by January 2027. Even so, the Danish market is leaking towards unregulated operators. Morten Rønde from the Spillebranchen industry association remarked, "The growth of the unlicensed market is massive," citing a drop in channelisation rates from 90% to 70% over three years due to these restrictions and high taxation.
Italy has fully implemented a stringent advertising ban through the Dignity Decree since 2018. Quirino Mancini from WH Partners in Italy is critical of this approach, seeing it as shortsighted and ineffective in combating illegal gambling while failing to support licensed operators. He reported that illegal gambling is thriving in Italy, valued at about €22 billion, with negligible impact on guiding players to licensed platforms.
Mancini noted the ban's loopholes allow for circumvention. Media guidelines were created by the telecom regulator instead of the gaming authority, enabling compliant sites to sidestep restrictions by offering non-gambling content such as entertainment and odds comparisons.
Interestingly, a more effective tool in the Dutch legislative framework has been the deposit regime introduced in 2024, which has shown clear positive results. With loss limits set at €150 monthly for users aged 18-23 and €350 for older players, along with affordability checks, instances of players exceeding their limits fell from 9.7% to 2.2%, and average monthly losses decreased by 31%.
Franssen acknowledges the noble aim behind the recent regulations: protecting players. However, he is wary of the cumulative effect of repeated advertising restrictions, tax increases, and growing obligations which have been driving the black market’s revenue beyond that of licensed operators—a fact acknowledged by the regulator. Adding more restrictions may exacerbate the problem rather than alleviate it, pushing more gamblers into illegal markets.
The government is now focusing on enforcement as a means to confront the black market, equipping the KSA with new resources. However, Franssen remains skeptical, asserting that the black market will always find ways to avoid penalties and circumvent barriers. He reminded that the process of instituting a complete ban requires primary legislation—an endeavor that could extend over two years. This timeframe could allow alarming trends, like a deepening black market and stagnant channelisation rates, to worsen.
When asked about the sustainability of the Dutch approach to gambling regulation, Mancini succinctly declared, "Absolutely so. This is quite a safe bet." Rønde provided a grim assessment of where this trajectory could lead, asserting, "Everything indicates that the Dutch policymakers have already gone too far. When surveys show the channelisation rate is down to 50%, this tells me that the market is already not working." He warned that certain stakeholders seemed hell-bent on undermining the possibility of a functioning gambling market somewhere down the line. The Dutch authorities may soon find that silencing the regulated market won’t halt gambling discussions entirely; rather, these conversations will simply shift to unseen corners far removed from regulatory oversight.
