The Dutch government has proposed a sweeping ban on online gambling advertising, signaling a shift towards a more stringent regulatory environment. In June, state secretary for legal protection Claudia van Bruggen announced these measures, which include eliminating sign-up bonuses like free bets, implementing a universal deposit limit across all operators, reinforcing the CRUKS self-exclusion register, and enhancing efforts against illegal gambling activities.
During her announcement, Van Bruggen expressed concern about the increasing number of people, particularly the youth, getting into trouble with online gambling. She stated, "It is high time to reverse this trend."
This proposal is not just a new initiative but part of a broader strategy that has seen a gradual tightening of gambling regulations. Starting in 2021, the Dutch authorities have implemented various measures, including banning celebrity endorsements, restricting untargeted advertising from July 2023, and prohibiting sports sponsorship by July 2025. Despite these steps, officials have acknowledged that prior measures have not sufficiently reduced public exposure to gambling advertising.
The original aim of regulation when the online market opened was to guide players to licensed operators—a goal that appears to have shifted. Justin Franssen, a partner at Amsterdam’s Franssen Tolboom gaming law firm, observes this change, stating, "Yes, I think it has – and actually, not even that quietly." According to him, the focus has transitioned to preventing gambling-related harm rather than ensuring players engage with licensed services.
The shift comes at a time when the policy is facing scrutiny. The Dutch gambling regulator, KSA, has reported that the legal share of gross gaming revenue has dipped to about 49% by early 2025, and estimates from trade groups indicate that the black market constitutes roughly 25% of all gambling activities in the Netherlands. Licensed operators have cited the gaming tax rate of 37.8% on gross gaming revenue as a contributing factor to their challenges.
The efficacy of the proposed total ban has been questioned. Franssen argues that there is no evidence suggesting such a complete prohibition would yield better results than previous partial restrictions. He notes that most gambling promotions on Dutch social media are already illegal, estimating that roughly 95% of these ads stem from unlicensed sources.
In June, the trade association VNLOK took legal action against Meta and filed a complaint with the European Commission, highlighting the prevalence of illegal gambling advertisements. They reported over 70,000 gambling ads on Meta platforms in the last quarter of 2025, with more than 95% from unlicensed operators and very few being removed. The KSA has consistently lodged complaints with Meta, yet illegal ads keep reappearing after removal. The illegal gambling market in the Netherlands has surged past €1 billion annually, potentially matching the regulated sector.
Franssen warns that a total ban would primarily benefit illegal operators while diminishing the ability of licensed firms to inform consumers about their legal, regulated options. He described such a policy as potentially one of the worst ideas seen in years.
Looking across Europe, similar experiences in Denmark and Italy provide cautionary tales. Denmark considered a blanket ban but instead implemented restrictions that led to a significant growth in the unlicensed market, which has now dropped the channelization rate from 90% to 70% in 2025. Morten Rønde, the outgoing director of the Danish online gambling association Spillebranchen, noted that restrictions only deter compliant operators, leaving unlicensed players unaffected.
Italy's approach, a nearly complete ban on gambling advertising since 2018, has not solved the issues it aimed to address. Quirino Mancini from WH Partners Italy reflected that illegal gambling in Italy has thrived, now estimated to be worth about €22 billion with minimal impact on channelization towards licensed services.
Despite the shortcomings of outright bans, some Dutch policies have produced tangible results. For instance, a deposit regime introduced in 2024 limits losses for younger players while instituting checks for affordability, leading to a marked decrease in breaches of spending limits and lower average monthly losses.
The Dutch government plans to bolster enforcement against illegal gambling through the KSA, though Franssen remains skeptical about the efficacy of such measures, likening the black market to quicksilver that avoids regulation. While implementing a full ban could take years, existing trends are already raising concerns, with a stagnant channelization rate hovering at around 50% and the black market continuing to grow.
Mancini expressed that the Dutch approach poses significant risks to the sustainable functioning of the regulated market. Rønde provided a grim outlook for the Dutch experiment, stating signs indicate that policymakers may be on the verge of making a dire mistake. He commented, "When surveys show that the channelization rate is down to 50%, this tells me that the market is already not working," cautioning that the moves could undermine a viable gambling market.
As the licensed sector becomes quieter, discussions about gambling may shift to less controllable avenues—places where regulators cannot monitor the conversations.
