The government of Gibraltar has officially released a framework aimed at regulating prediction markets, following months of preparation and the granting of two licenses. This regulatory framework was published in the Gibraltar Gazette on Monday by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, which is headed by Minister Nigel Feetham. It is part of the new Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025.
The regulations adopt an "activity-based and risk-based approach" to handling prediction markets, focusing on risks such as market integrity, the protection of participants, prevention of financial crime, and maintaining Gibraltar's reputation. A government note highlighted the importance of prediction markets in gathering information and aiding price discovery.
Minister Feetham emphasized that the framework results from extensive discussions with industry experts, potential operators, and investors. He expressed confidence that this collaborative effort demonstrates that innovation can coexist with stringent regulatory standards. Significant interest has been noted from various prospective applicants, including globally recognized companies.
To oversee the implementation of the framework, an independent supervisory panel has been established. Feetham mentioned that the panel possesses experience in managing remote, technology-enabled markets, as well as regulating complex digital environments.
Feetham first announced plans for prediction market regulation during a parliamentary session in April, where he noted the award of an initial license to ADI Predictstreet. However, because the new Gambling Act had not yet been enacted, this license fell under previous legislation.
The newly published 24-page regulatory document stipulates several requirements for prediction market operators. All event contracts must be approved by the Gambling Authority and designed to be clear, capable of objective settlement, not easily manipulated, and aligned with regulatory objectives. Operators are responsible for implementing systems to prevent market manipulation, insider trading, or misuse of confidential information.
The regulatory authority retains the power to restrict or prohibit certain contracts deemed inappropriate or against the public interest, including those related to criminal activities, death, terrorism, or armed conflict.
The first licensee for prediction markets in Gibraltar, ADI, received a "betting intermediary" license. The new regulations set forth prediction market activities as a distinct category with specific authorizations and operational requirements. During this transition, Feetham noted Gibraltar's agility in adapting regulations, especially in light of UK gambling tax increases that threatened its substantial gaming sector serving the UK market.
Feetham asserted, "Today, we have delivered on that commitment with the publication of a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world." The US betting platform WagerWire is expected to become the second license holder in Gibraltar, having received approval in June to launch its services.
Travis Geiger, co-founder of WagerWire, mentioned that the California-based platform aims to roll out a business-to-business and business-to-consumer prediction markets product in time for the NFL preseason and the start of international football in August. He praised Gibraltar’s status as a gaming hub and predicted that the new regulatory framework could serve as a model for other jurisdictions.
Feetham recognized the existing lack of consensus on the characterization of prediction markets, particularly highlighted by regulatory disputes in the US. He observed, "Internationally, there remains no settled consensus as to how prediction markets should be characterized… Gibraltar’s framework therefore provides an additional regulatory option by establishing a dedicated regime."
He noted the prediction market sector's rapid evolution, explaining that this regulatory framework aims to support responsible innovation while preserving high standards of market integrity and participant protection.
Recently, the EU’s financial regulator ESMA reaffirmed its stance on prediction market contracts under its authority, while several gambling regulators across Europe, including those from Belgium and France, have blocked leading operators like Polymarket and Kalshi from operating within their regions due to consumer risk concerns. In response, Feetham stated that Gibraltar's framework incorporates standardized safeguards specific to exchange-based markets, addressing issues such as market manipulation, conflict of interest, and anti-money laundering measures.
