Following iGB L!VE, Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin have delved into significant data surrounding the World Cup and the European gambling landscape, beginning with a Dutch gambling tax increase that has not achieved its financial objectives. They also touch on the latest developments regarding Ireland's new licensing framework.
Tracking prediction market activity during the World Cup has revealed interesting insights. In terms of betting volume, the Democratic Republic of the Congo was highlighted as the most heavily backed nation not to win the tournament. Conversely, France, Spain, and Portugal topped the charts as the favorites among teams expected to claim victory.
An intriguing aspect uncovered relates to the matches generating the most losing bets, suggesting a trend that benefits traditional sportsbooks, while prediction markets seem to have miscalculated these outcomes.
In the Netherlands, the government has implemented a two-phase tax hike on gambling, increasing the rate from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, and further to 37.8% in January 2026. Initial projections from the Dutch Treasury anticipated these rises would yield an additional €108 million in revenue for 2025 and €216 million by 2026. However, the actual revenue reported was significantly lower, with a mere €2 million increase in 2025 and an estimated €57 million for 2026. Ed Birkin pointed out that the disappointing returns cannot solely be attributed to the tax increase; factors like new deposit caps, advertising restrictions, and the decline of post-Euro 2024 revenue have all contributed to a reduced taxable base.
The impact on physical venues has been notable as well; visits to casinos and gaming halls have dropped approximately 11% year-on-year, with several operators citing the tax rise as a reason for closures. The discussions hinted that tax increases often do not produce the expected results for governments.
Switching focus to Ireland, the new licensing regime introduced by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) took effect on July 1. While currently 89% of online betting is conducted onshore, this only represents 35% of the total market, as iGaming remains primarily offshore and unregulated. Platform providers, such as Pragmatic Solutions, have begun assisting operators with this regulatory transition. H2 has provided estimates on the potential market value as regulation expands.
Highlighting a significant aspect of the iGB L!VE event, Robin shared his insights from the Africa Summit, where regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya gathered alongside various industry bodies, including the African Tax Administration Forum. This event was paired with a session organized by the African iGaming Alliance, where vital topics like sustainable taxation and player protection were discussed, progressing towards an Africa Safer Gambling Week across the continent.
Ed, who moderated a tax panel at the summit, posed a critical question as they concluded: if operators in certain markets manage to absorb or evade onerous tax rates, how can the industry convincingly contest high taxation in other jurisdictions?
For comprehensive insights and data, delve into the full Right to the Source series.
