Australia is cautioning its citizens against engaging with offshore prediction markets, highlighting their lack of the legal protections available through regulated financial products. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has revised its MoneySmart guide amid a rise in Australian users of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland emphasized that Australians participating in these foreign markets are transacting with entities that do not fall under Australian regulations. As a result, these individuals are not afforded the same consumer protections as those using regulated Australian services. Kirkland noted that activities within prediction markets are generally categorized as gambling, despite their facade as financial instruments.
He remarked, "Whatever the legal definition of a prediction market, let’s just focus on the substance and in all practical terms, it is akin to gambling."
The commission acknowledged limited awareness of the overall situation, suggesting that the known incidents might only represent a fraction of the problem. Additionally, enforcing rules against insider trading on international sites poses significant challenges. Kirkland referenced a notable case involving a soldier charged with betting on the potential ousting of the Venezuelan president while simultaneously participating in operations regarding that outcome.
Australia has already taken measures against offshore prediction markets, as evidenced by an action in August 2025 when the Australian Communications and Media Authority directed internet service providers to block Polymarket for offering unlicensed gambling services, thus violating the Interactive Gambling Act.
