George Santos, a former U.S. congressman, has been permanently barred from trading on the prediction market Kalshi, as announced by the company last week. This decisive action follows findings from an investigation into his manipulation of contract prices related to his expected attendance at the State of the Union address scheduled for February 24, 2026.
In addition to the ban, Santos has been fined $71,356 for his violations.
Kalshi's compliance department reported that Santos executed a series of significant trades in February 2026 concerning contracts that would pay out depending on his attendance at the State of the Union address. The exchange discovered that he made public statements about his intention to appear, some of which were later deemed misleading. These statements were aimed at affecting the market prices of contracts betting on whether he would attend or not.
The company noted that these misleading announcements manipulated market prices, allowing Santos to generate a profit of $17,839.57 from his trades. Upon identifying suspicious trading activity, Kalshi froze Santos's account and reported him to federal authorities.
Santos responded to the ban with criticism of Kalshi on social media, stating, "Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for." He referred to Kalshi as an "unserious company" and accused them of failing to adhere to their own notices and deadlines.
Kalshi imposed the sanctions according to various exchange regulations, which align with federal market laws, prohibiting manipulation or trading based on non-public information. These penalties, effective from August 28, 2026, prevent Santos from having any direct or indirect access to trading on Kalshi.
Earlier this year, another prediction market platform, Polymarket, also severed its ties with Santos amid a separate Department of Justice investigation concerning whether he bet on his own attendance at the same State of the Union address. Santos previously faced a federal judge who sentenced him to 87 months in prison on felony wire and check fraud charges; he was released after several months when President Donald Trump granted him clemency.
Following his release, Santos began working as an influencer for Polymarket.
Santos's case stands out as the most severe of four disciplinary actions Kalshi announced, amid growing scrutiny over insider knowledge risks and the influence market participants may exert over event outcomes.
He is not the only individual to face penalties for attempting to manipulate the prediction market. Ben Midgley, a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Maine, admitted to purchasing less than $1,000 worth of contracts related to his campaign, resulting in a $5,434.30 fine and three-year suspension. Likewise, Laurie Buckhout, a North Carolina congressional candidate, was fined $2,589.96 and suspended for three years for buying contracts linked to her race. Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire California gubernatorial candidate, acquired approximately $10,000 in contracts tied to his campaign and faced a fine of $31,770 and a three-year suspension.
Santos's severe sanction stems from allegations that he materially profited from issuing false statements designed to influence market prices, a breach that elevated his penalty above those of others.
Kalshi's Rule 5.17(z) clearly prohibits trading contracts where participants can affect the underlying event, underscoring the seriousness of Santos's infractions.
