The Democratic Party achieved significant electoral victories in the U.S. midterms on Tuesday, gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This shift in power is expected to hinder President Trump's agenda for the remainder of his term.
Although the immediate impacts on the national gambling landscape are unclear, the future of prediction markets is likely to be determined more by the Supreme Court than by Congress in the near term. Discontent with Trump, whose approval ratings are low, may have implications for the medium term.
Prediction markets have thrived under Trump's presidency despite facing legal debates. The Trump-appointed chair of the CFTC, Michael Selig, has granted them extensive regulatory permissions, a stark contrast to the current Biden administration. Should dissatisfaction persist into the 2028 Presidential election, a Democratic victory could reshape the future of these markets significantly.
Furthermore, a Democratic majority could prevent Trump from appointing a Supreme Court justice who might support his interests, especially if Justices Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito retire during his presidency. Ron DeSantis, Florida's governor, indicated that the chances of confirming a suitable successor to Thomas or Alito are essentially nonexistent, which could complicate any Supreme Court cases related to sports-event contracts.
Several noteworthy local outcomes relevant to gambling stakeholders emerged from Tuesday's elections.
In Nevada, Democrat Aaron Ford won the governor's race, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo. Lombardo had been viewed as favorable to business interests and controversially stated he was willing to prioritize the state's gaming industry billionaires, having received substantial campaign donations from the sector, including $3 million from Station Casinos, $2 million from the Fertitta family, and $1 million from Las Vegas Sands. Ford, on the other hand, garnered support from unions that represent casino workers.
In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton triumphed over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the gubernatorial race. Acton has expressed her support for legalizing online casinos in Ohio with an emphasis on player safety and advertising. While online sports betting and physical casinos are currently legal in Ohio, online casino gambling remains banned. Ramaswamy did not state a position on iGaming legalization, but his Republican predecessor, Mike DeWine, opposed it, citing concerns over saturation in the gambling market. The future of online casinos may depend on Acton's ability to work collaboratively across party lines in her new term.
In Nebraska, a ballot measure aimed at legalizing online wagering is likely to fail. Two required measures, Measure 440 and Measure 441, needed to pass to enable licensed racetracks to collaborate with online gambling operators. However, initial reports indicate that Measure 440 is falling short of support by about 55% to 45%, with similar prospects for Measure 441.
Virginia's elections featured two local measures on expanding pari-mutuel wagering. A proposal to allow pari-mutuel betting at facilities in Pulaski was rejected, while a similar measure in Amherst County appears likely to pass narrowly, with votes at 50.66% in favor and 49.34% against.
In Indiana, unofficial results show that voters in three counties—Allen, DeKalb, and Steuben—have largely rejected the pursuit of a local casino license. The one available license will go to only one county, even if all three measures succeeded. Preliminary estimates indicate that Allen County rejected the proposal by about 60% to 40%, Steuben County by 59% to 41%, and DeKalb County by 65% to 35%. Local business sectors had supported the casino project for its potential economic benefits, while critics warned against the negative impact of gambling on the community.
