Traditional metrics for measuring sportsbook uptime indicate how long a platform is available during a match. In contrast, wagering-weighted uptime provides a crucial perspective: it assesses whether a sportsbook was operational during periods of peak betting activity.
Bettormetrics’ analysis of the US Open illustrates that understanding wagering patterns is essential to evaluating sportsbook performance effectively. By integrating prediction market data with its existing exchange information, Bettormetrics enhances its ability to gauge operator performance across various sports and markets, particularly in the US.
The conventional uptime metrics can be misleading. Typically reported as the percentage of total match time a market was available, they fail to account for fluctuating wagering activity throughout the event. This method assumes all match periods hold equal significance, disregarding that action tends to concentrate during decisive moments. For instance, a sportsbook could be rated well in uptime while being unavailable during critical market moments, thus masking its true service performance.
Bettormetrics conducted a comparative analysis of operator pricing and availability against exchange data and matched wagering activity in 39 in-play men's singles matches at the US Open from 18 different operators. Performance was gauged in two ways: by duration and by wagering. The wagering-weighted uptime reflects the proportion of exchange wagering that occurred while an operator's market was active.
Although exchange wagering does not equate to sportsbook wagering directly, it provides insight into betting concentrations, indicating when sportsbook availability is most crucial. Both traditional betting exchanges and prediction markets yield valuable data for establishing pricing and wagering signals, contingent on sufficient liquidity. The term “theoretical arbitrage” signifies that at least one sportsbook option was priced affordably against the exchange; it does not confirm every opportunity is feasible.
A clear illustration of this can be seen with LeoVegas, which reported a duration-weighted uptime of 97.8%, placing it comfortably among other operators like Superbet and Paddy Power. Yet, its wagering-weighted uptime faltered at 88.3%, the lowest in the group. The difference of 9.5 percentage points between these two metrics highlights how a strong duration uptime can conceal significant downtime during high-activity betting periods. For example, in the match between Zverev and Tabilo, LeoVegas recorded 98.5% uptime duration but was only active during 61.5% of exchange wagering activity, indicating critical downtimes coincided with peak betting moments.
The examination of in-play pricing performance reveals how operators like Pinnacle manage to maintain tighter average margins while exhibiting lower theoretical arbitrage exposure. Pinnacle averaged a 3.7% overround, the best in the group, with arbitrage exposure of only 4.8% by duration. DraftKings, with a slightly higher overround of 4.5%, had an arbitrage figure more than three times higher than Pinnacle’s.
This trend is not universal; firms can maintain competitiveness without excessive arbitrage exposure. For instance, Superbet and FanDuel displayed similar abilities. Both operators reported high wagering-weighted uptime alongside favorable arbitrage ratios without compromising service availability. Superbet’s uptime was at 97.5%, while FanDuel reached 98.7%, emphasizing their effectiveness in balancing competitive pricing and operational readiness.
Among other highlights, Bet365 had the most notable theoretical arbitrage exposure during the tense five-set match where Mariano Navone upset Novak Djokovic, with 56.5% of match duration reflecting arbitrage opportunities. Although its average overround is close to industry standards, it differs greatly from DraftKings' findings which showed a need for improvement in its tennis offerings.
The US Open analysis underscores the added value of a wagering-weighted perspective on sportsbook evaluation. Although LeoVegas and Superbet recorded similar duration uptimes, their wagering-weighted uptimes varied significantly. The forthcoming integration of prediction market data with existing exchange data by Bettormetrics aims to elevate the analysis of sportsbook performance across a wider spectrum, allowing for deeper insights into operator availability during high betting activities.
Sabin Brooks, CEO of Bettormetrics, stresses that traditional uptime metrics are inadequate. He states, "What the US Open clearly shows is that traditional uptime alone is no longer enough. It tells an operator how often it was available but not whether it was available when it mattered most. This analysis exemplifies how we connect pricing, availability, and wagering signals to help operators identify opportunities and issues with the most significant commercial impact."
