According to a recent report commissioned by Euromat and conducted by Regulus Partners and Helios, the black market for gambling in Europe is on a significant growth trajectory. Between 2019 and 2026, it is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 18%, potentially reaching a valuation of €13 billion by the end of this year.
The analysis covers black market activities across 28 European jurisdictions, including notable countries like the UK, Netherlands, and Germany. It reveals that just 25 operators are responsible for about 64% of the black market traffic, profiting largely from the booming prevalence of cryptocurrencies and extensive branding through marketing and sponsorships.
The report highlights that some brands are specifically targeting banned products in certain jurisdictions, with France's illegal iGaming market serving as a prominent example.
The authors noted that, "The largest black market operators have scaled to create recognisable brands with traffic that can compare to domestically licensed operators," indicating a significant challenge for regulated markets. A noteworthy statistic is that the leading group of sites, identified by common ownership, captures 12% of the traffic, while the most recognized single brand holds a 10% share.
Many black market operators facilitate cryptocurrency payments and are licensed in "light touch" offshore jurisdictions, which complicate enforcement due to the lack of transparency in business ownership. In contrast, smaller sites depend heavily on affiliate marketing to drive their traffic.
Regulatory restrictions are largely blamed for the rising black market, with the report indicating that 46% of the examined markets have imposed strict advertising limitations on regulated operators. Countries such as Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, and others are among those with significant constraints.
Additional factors contributing to the black market include consumer taxation in 29% of the jurisdictions assessed and banned products in 14%. Monopolistic structures in five markets have further narrowed consumer choices.
The authors pointed out that players often engage in multiple types of betting, so restrictions on specific markets lead them to seek out alternative options, stating, "If a customer finds black market sites that have all their preferred betting and gaming options, convenience dictates they will transfer a broad range of their expenditure there." Restrictions on engaging products, especially in popular verticals like online slots, can drive players toward illegal offerings if the regulated options provide unsatisfactory returns or bonuses.
Previous studies have shown that the top 1% of active customers generate nearly half of the black market's revenue in Europe, mirroring trends seen in the licensed sector where online gambling is treated as discretionary consumer spending.
In the UK specifically, the report noted a concerning shift toward the black market, estimating it could reach €1 billion due to a substantial increase in remote gaming duty from 21% to 40% implemented in April. This tax hike is anticipated to prompt consumers to favor illegal venues to enjoy unrestricted bonuses. Research conducted by YouGov revealed that two-thirds of bettors believed this tax increase would drive them to unlicensed operators. Traditionally, the UK has maintained a high channelisation rate, attributed to its competitive market landscape with as many as 1,491 licensed sites catering to a vast user base.
For its estimates, the report applied various methodologies, including analyzing web traffic, digital marketing metrics, and regulatory conditions. Helios specifically focused on the number of actively marketed black market sites in the 28 studied markets from March to May, confirming their findings with traffic data from SimilarWeb. This examination showed that in several jurisdictions, the illegal websites far outnumber those with local licenses, particularly in countries like France, Portugal, and the Netherlands.
Nicole Macedo has a background in local news reporting and was instrumental in launching Gibraltar's first online-only broadcaster.
