Regulus Partners has assessed that Brazil's online gambling ban has only a 5% chance of becoming permanent, as they consider this the least likely outcome. Since 1988, Brazilian law has permitted the president to enact provisional measures that take immediate effect, pending congressional approval. Estimates indicate that the industry has approximately a 10% likelihood of successfully challenging this ban in court, which would potentially lead to its suspension. Conversely, analysis suggests there is an 85% chance that gambling operations will persist without congressional intervention.
Regulus also points out that the only viable path to a gambling ban would require legal and electoral avenues to lift the prohibition. In a political shift, the firm postulates that Flávio Bolsonaro has a 45% chance of winning the upcoming elections, which could result in the end of the gambling ban, although operators are expected to remain active.
The report suggests that incumbent President Lula has around a 40% likelihood of winning in the first round of presidential elections but is not expected to secure an outright victory.
Analysts expressed criticism towards Lula, stating that the same politician who devised the existing problematic framework of legal gambling now seeks to vilify it, blaming stakeholders for adhering to his guidelines.
The report identifies Kaizen Gaming, Super, bet365, Entain, and Flutter as the major operators in the Brazilian market equipped to survive a temporary gambling ban. According to Regulus, these operators together account for roughly 55-60% of the current market share. Meanwhile, around 80 other operators, primarily local or regional, may struggle to withstand a cessation of revenues lasting more than a few days.
Additionally, Lula's administration has reportedly raised approximately €3.4 billion from gambling taxes. In stark contrast, illegal gambling operations, inclusive of activities like Jogo do Bicho, crypto-driven online gambling, and unregulated slot machines, have generated an estimated €21.3 billion in revenue.
