On Tuesday, Brazil's Federal Revenue Service reported tax collection figures for the first eight months of 2026. From January to August, the government received BRL2.11 trillion (approximately $411.2 million), marking a nearly 12% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Notably, taxes from games and bets surged by 69.25%, with BRL9.91 billion collected from the betting sector during these months.
However, there was a significant setback in August, where the revenue dropped by 20.5% compared to July. The total for August stood at BRL1.163 billion, down from BRL1.463 billion in July. January remained the strongest month, bringing in nearly BRL1.5 billion in revenue.
The decline in February and March can be attributed, in part, to the seasonal effects of the Carnival festival. Revenue began to rebound in April, with July nearing January’s impressive numbers. Yet, August's decline may be linked to growing criticism of the betting industry and the absence of the World Cup's uplifting influence, as it represented the first full month without that boost.
Projections for the sector estimated a potential revenue of BRL16 billion by the end of 2026. However, given the 20.5% drop in August and the trend towards stabilization, actual earnings may linger closer to BRL14 billion. The industry's future earnings outlook is further complicated by discussions among government officials about possibly banning online casinos, a pivotal sector for revenue. Should this ban proceed, forecasting suggests monthly revenues could plummet to BRL600 million, bringing total revenue down to about BRL12 billion by year’s end.
The reported revenue reflects federal taxes associated with the gaming industry, including the Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ), Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL), and the PIS/Cofins taxes. This total also considers the direct taxes on gross revenue.
Despite nearing BRL10 billion in collected revenue, President Lula has threatened the industry with severe measures. Such actions could not only jeopardize revenue but might also invite legal challenges, leading to potential compensation liabilities that could exceed tenfold the amounts collected from January to August 2026. Industry representatives express concern that if online betting were banned, capital could simply shift to illegal markets.
