Brazil's recent ban on betting has significantly impacted the entire market, affecting every licensed operator in the country. Analysis by Blask reveals that the repercussions vary markedly, as over half of the licensed operators relied heavily on Brazilian revenue, while global operators are seeing less damage overall.
In the first ten days following the ban, these operators collectively lost approximately R$1.2 billion in gross gaming revenue, a staggering figure illustrating the scale of the disruption. With no licensed brands permitted to operate in Brazil anymore, the impact has created varying levels of exposure across the market. For many operators, Brazil was either their primary or a very minor source of revenue.
The statistics surrounding the operators affected by the ban are telling:
– 188 licensed operators faced cessation of activities.
– 158 brands were analyzed by Blask.
– 36 out of 188 operators initiated layoffs by October 5.
– The sector was supporting an estimated 10,000 direct jobs and another 5,000 indirect jobs.
– The gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the licensed market between January and June 2026 was projected at R$20.07 billion.
– The GGR loss in the initial ten days of the ban was around R$1.2 billion.
– Prior to the ban, the GGR averaged roughly R$111 million per day.
– There was an 82% decrease in search demand for licensed markets.
– Of the 158 licensed brands, about 125 exclusively operated in Brazil.
– These Brazil-only operators accounted for 41.8% of the revenue baseline, totaling $3.14 billion.
Before the ban, licensed operators comprised 96% of Brazil’s market, with 96.8% of the Competitive Earning Baseline (CEB) recorded for January to September 2026. Following the implementation of the ban on September 25, the Blask Index fell by 82%, with demand for international brands remaining stable at around 1%. Conversely, the share of search traffic redirected towards offshore operators increased from 3.8% to 17.8%, although the overall market size remained largely unchanged.
The remaining licensed market was heavily concentrated, with major players like Betano, Bet365, Sportingbet, and Superbet accounting for 50.9% of the CEB. In stark contrast, many other companies in the market engaged minimally or not at all in the international business.
Among the 158 licensed brands operating in Brazil, 125 had no other markets and generated all their revenue from Brazilian consumers, highlighting a significant vulnerability. Esportes de Sorte, 7Games, Betnacional, and Vaidebet are among the largest brands in this group, with Brazil contributing to more than 60% of their CEB. Altogether, these Brazil-dependent brands represent 130 entities controlling 51.7% of the licensed CEB.
This scenario illustrates a pressing issue as more than half of the licensed operators relied predominantly on Brazilian revenue. On the other hand, 21 operators derived less than 30% of their CEB from Brazil, that minority accounting for only 16% of the licensed CEB.
Due to the ban, the 125 brands focused solely on the Brazilian market face a total loss of revenue. This translates to nearly one-third of the CEB linked to these brands, equating to 12.9% of the total licensed market. Notably, Sportingbet features the broadest international reach among those hardest impacted, with Brazil constituting 83.7% of its CEB. Its second-largest market, Greece, contributes less than one-tenth of what Brazil does.
Betano, facing the largest absolute loss, saw its Brazilian CEB fall to $1.88 billion from January to September, which constitutes 51.6% of its global CEB. While Betano has a more significant international presence, its secondary market in Chile is merely one-fifth the size of its Brazilian earnings.
For larger operators such as Entain, Flutter, and Bet365, the damage from the betting ban is comparatively lower. Entain has stated that its EBITDA forecasts remain stable, though they anticipate downward adjustments in the future. Flutter estimates the impact of the ban could reduce its revenue by about $70 million and adjusted EBITDA by $20 million in 2026. Brazil's contribution to Bet365 remains crucial, accounting for 15.8% of the CEB across 79 sectors.
The consequences of this ban create a stark divide among the affected brands. For the 125 operators reliant solely on the Brazilian market, their future hinges on legislative decisions regarding the permanence of the ban. Conversely, larger operators like Betano and Superbet can absorb these losses while depending on their performance in other markets.
The landscape is mixed; 130 brands, which make up 51.7% of the licensed CEB, saw Brazil make up more than 60% of their business, whereas 21 global operators representing just 16% of the licensed CEB maintained less than 30% exposure to the Brazilian market. The final outcome remains in the hands of Congress as it weighs the future of this prohibition.
