Brazil faces a potential loss of up to BRL 73 billion in tax revenue over the next four years as a result of its recent ban on regulated online gambling. This projection stems from Provisional Measure No. 1394, which has temporarily halted the country's online gambling market. Analysts at LCA Consultores estimate this financial loss will be approximately EUR 13.14 billion.
The industry could see nearly 10,000 direct jobs affected, alongside about 5,500 indirect positions. Moreover, direct employment contributes around BRL 460 million in annual salaries.
As the regulated gambling market closes its doors, many engaged users are likely to turn to illegal betting sites, stripping them of the protections they once enjoyed. Companies in this sector are also poised to seek compensation, amounting to BRL 2.55 billion, for the license fees they have already paid.
In addition to these losses, the gambling sector has provided over BRL 1.1 billion (approximately EUR 195.25 million) to Brazil's Serie A football league this year. The cessation of gambling operations would significantly impact the financial support crucial for this sports entity.
There remains an opportunity for President Lula to revoke the ban, and Congress also holds the authority to overturn it. The implications of this issue are compounded by Brazil's presidential elections, set for October 2026. In the current political landscape, Lula is contending against Flavio Bolsonaro and finds himself trailing the incumbent president by 2% after the first voting round on October 4, 2026. The decisive second round is scheduled for October 25.
