Europe's gambling landscape has been overshadowed by concerns over rising taxes, with Britain and the Netherlands exemplifying how swiftly a market's economics can shift. Poland, however, is no stranger to significant tax pressures. For 17 years, it has dealt with what is regarded as one of the continent's most challenging tax frameworks.
The high tax burden is a focal point for operators in Poland, where the market is seen as exciting yet fraught with short-term difficulties. Despite the immediate challenges, the long-term outlook in one of Europe's rapidly growing economies cannot be overlooked.
Poland's regulatory framework for gambling is notably complex, shaped by past political turmoil. The groundwork for its gambling laws was laid in 2009, following a political scandal known as 'Blackjack-gate,' which resulted in the resignation of several senior politicians. The 2009 Gambling Act implemented a steep 12% turnover tax on sports betting from private operators and an even heftier 50% tax on casino gaming revenue. In addition to these taxes, players face a 10% tax on their winnings, which is collected at the source by operators.
Land-based casinos require licenses, but following reforms in 2017, the state-run Totalizator Sportowy has held a monopoly over online casinos and land-based slot machines, allowing private operators only in online sports betting under a licensing system. The reforms also enabled authorities to block payment services linked to illegal gambling sites, although debates about enforcement efficacy persist.
Opinions among licensed sports betting operators reveal two main concerns: the tax rates are excessive and distorting. Myke Foster, group head of gaming at Fortuna Entertainment Group, a leading sports betting firm in Poland, stated, "Turnover tax is aggressively anti-customer and always will be. It prevents us from offering as fun and engaging a product as we’d like." He suggests that the unpredictable nature of turnover taxes leads operators to adopt higher margins, which ultimately harms competitiveness.
Data from H2 Gambling Capital indicates that total sports betting GGR in Poland could reach €1.62 billion in 2026, based on a gross turnover estimate of €5.07 billion. This represents a margin around 32%, exceeding industry norms found in other markets, as companies try to balance out the taxes.
Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, elaborates on the issue, stating the turnover tax results in a high GGR margin, making the product less competitive against illegal operators. Hermann Miller, secretary general of the European Casino Association, also notes that managing the tax burden in Poland makes it challenging to deliver an attractive online experience to consumers.
Discussion around transitioning to a GGR-based tax system for sports betting has surfaced in Poland. Konrad Raczkowski, an economist and former finance minister, proposed in a 2021 opinion piece that the country replace the 12% turnover tax with a 20-25% GGR tax, aligning it with European averages. However, such a change could cut tax revenue significantly, potentially halving it based on 2026 turnover predictions.
Birkin agrees that while moving to a GGR model could lower immediate tax revenues, it could stimulate market growth and improve competitiveness. Despite the current tax landscape, Poland's market continues to flourish. H2 Gambling Capital estimates that total GGR for online and land-based gambling could rise to $4.96 billion in 2026 after several years of double-digit growth.
Yet concerns remain about whether this growth could be even more robust under a GGR system. Persistent reports indicate that a significant portion of Polish players engages with unregulated online casino operators — a report suggests that 83% have accounts with these illegal sites. Estimates show online sports betting channelisation between 78% and 88% and online casino channelisation hovering around 59%.
Despite these issues, the size of the unregulated sector reflects immense potential tax revenues for the state if viable regulations could be put in place. Foster highlighted the need for regulatory considerations that address the worry of rising grey and black-market bookmakers.
A shift towards liberalising online casinos in Poland could drastically alter the market's dynamics, but the influence of Totalizator Sportowy remains strong. Established in 1955, it continues to contribute substantial revenues to the state, complicating efforts to initiate changes. Radosław Kietliński from Totalizator Sportowy expressed skepticism about the likelihood of liberalisation, citing that regulating online casinos wouldn't necessarily affect the black market.
Public sentiment seems to favor the state monopoly. A 2025 study noted that 50% of respondents supported the state monopoly, while only 16% opposed it. Despite this, there is a growing demand among consumers for access to online casinos. Foster quoted: "Customers want online casino, and when you have a state monopoly, you’re incentivizing them to seek alternatives."
He remains hopeful that regulators will recognize the benefits of allowing established brands into the online casino sector, seeing it as an opportunity to mitigate the unregulated market. However, barriers to reform largely rest with politicians. As Poland approaches the 2027 elections, the political climate could shift.
Neither of the major parties, Civic Platform or Law & Justice, appear keen to support industry reforms. The Confederation party, known for opposing state monopolies and high taxes, offers a glimmer of hope, but its ability to influence legislation remains uncertain. Current political priorities, centered on security concerns stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, mean gambling reforms are not a pressing issue on the national agenda.
As Finland moves to liberalize its online gaming market next year, some view this as a potential catalyst for change in Poland. Foster suggested that if successful, Finland could inspire Polish policymakers to reconsider their regulatory strategies. However, the contexts differ, given Finland's government could be seen as more open to liberalization.
The prevailing caution in Poland traces back to earlier scandals associated with the Tusk government. As the black market expands, the case for reform grows stronger. Foster asserted that adapting the gambling market regulations is imperative for Poland's future, advocating for a balanced approach that ensures that businesses can contribute to the economy without being stifled by excessive regulations.
