Kalshi has concluded its market surrounding Brad Pitt's attendance at the World Cup final, but the resolution has sparked frustration among users. Despite a lack of concrete evidence, such as photos showing Pitt at the event, Kalshi settled the market with a "yes" on his attendance.
Following the final match on July 19, speculation about Pitt being present fluctuated significantly on the platform. The probability assigned to his attendance shifted from 11% to 75%, then down to 50%, leaving many uncertain about how the market would ultimately resolve.
A significant mix-up occurred during the live broadcast when a Fox Sports commentator mistakenly identified Matt Damon as Pitt. Commentator John Strong stated, "Brad Pitt also among the fans here," but quickly rectified his mistake after co-commentator Stu Holden pointed it out, with Strong apologizing to both actors.
In contrast, NBC Sports reported that Pitt did attend the game. Kalshi's rules indicate that attendance can be confirmed based on reports from reliable sources, including social media. USA Today, while discussing the Damon confusion, suggested that Pitt was likely not present at the match.
In a statement shared by NPR reporter Bobby Allyn on X, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana clarified that the market's resolution was based on subsequent reporting, not the initial broadcast error. Kalshi did not provide a response when approached for comment regarding the market.
Polymarket US also had a market regarding Pitt's attendance, which concluded with a settlement of "no."
Users who bet against Pitt’s attendance expressed their frustration. Roughly $300,000 was wagered on whether he would be present. An organization has even emerged to allege corruption in the settlement process.
One user, known as NateMeininger, shared their experience of switching positions on the market. With a reputation as a top trader on Kalshi, they stated, "Be very willing to change your mind and accept you’re wrong. I initially was on No for Brad Pitt. The NBC Sports piece instantly changed everything for me, so I sold and bought Yeses."
Another user criticized the market decision, arguing, "There are no real articles claiming Brad Pitt was there; therefore, this settlement is completely fraudulent and corrupt. And you know that, but the difference is, you’re someone who throws ridiculous amounts of money in Kalshi, and therefore Kalshi makes tons of money off you with fees. They’re incentivized to keep you happy."
This incident follows similar controversy tied to Kalshi’s Super Bowl attendance market, where accusations of manipulation involving Jeff Bezos' son surfaced. Critics believe such markets are vulnerable to insider trading and ethical issues.
