A recent study has revealed that Brazilian families lost BRL 62.5 billion (approximately $12.5 billion) to gambling operators in 2025. During this period, these companies processed a staggering BRL 350.97 billion in transactions through Pix, the instant cash transfer system in Brazil.
This analysis appears in the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, and the numbers surpass those reported by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), which is responsible for regulating betting activities in Brazil.
Prepared by Comsefaz, the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy, the study utilized data from the Central Bank, EPAE (Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity), alongside the authors’ calculations.
An investigation by market intelligence firm LCA Consultores, for the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), estimated that illegal betting operations make up between 41% and 51% of the market. Notably, the difference between Comsefaz's reported losses of BRL 62.5 billion and the Ministry of Finance's figure of BRL 36.9 billion amounts to BRL 25.6 billion, reflecting around 41% of the total as estimated in a separate report. This finding aligns with the lower end of LCA's projections.
According to the Brazilian newspaper Folha, the study showed that the regulation of betting operators coincided with a significant shift in Pix transfers to businesses involved in arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors.
The reported BRL 62.5 billion figure represents net transaction value, which is the total money wagered minus the winnings returned. It is also equivalent to roughly 0.68% of the gross disposable income for Brazilian households, indicating a noticeable impact of expanding betting operations on Brazilian finances.
The report analyzed regulated betting operators’ influence on Pix transactions from October 2024 through March 2026. Researchers estimated the transfer volumes that would have occurred in the arts and recreation sectors had the regulatory changes not taken place, and compared this with actual figures observed, interpreting the differences as the attributable impact of betting operations.
The authors cautioned that this was a statistical simulation and did not definitively establish a cause-and-effect relationship. Furthermore, the report noted a slowdown in transaction growth linked to a ban preventing Bolsa Família beneficiaries from betting, indicating that lower-income families significantly contribute to the Brazilian online sports betting market.
