The recent increase in gambling tax in the Netherlands has not met the government's revenue expectations, as revealed in a joint monitoring report by the Ministry of Finance and the gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA). The report indicates that various regulatory changes and market factors have contributed to diminished tax revenues from 2024 through early 2026.
The tax hike occurred in two phases, first raising the rate from 30.5% to 34.2% on January 1, 2025, followed by a further increase to 37.8% on January 1, 2026. Initially, the Treasury predicted that these increases would generate around €108 million ($122.6 million) in additional revenue for 2025, and another €216 million for 2026. However, actual revenues fell significantly short, totaling only about €2 million extra in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026 compared to 2024 levels.
The KSA attributes the shortfall to a shrinking tax base, although isolating the impact of the tax hike from other market changes has proven challenging. Tax calculations are based on the sector's gross gaming revenue (GGR), which has been influenced by several factors:
– New player-protection measures introduced in October 2024 established monthly net-deposit limits of €300 for younger adults and €700 for those aged 24 and older.
– Restrictions on advertising and sponsorship began on July 1, 2024, with bans on TV program sponsorship and a prohibition on sponsorship of sports teams and kits set for July 1, 2025, limiting marketing outreach.
– The revenue boost seen after UEFA Euro 2024 has dissipated, while stringent regulatory scrutiny has created uncertainty in the market.
Although these measures aim to enhance consumer protection, they have also reduced the volume of taxable gambling activity. Some land-based operators reported closures or restructurings attributed to the tax hike, affecting their operating margins. The KSA's 2025 annual report also indicated a decline in the market share of licensed operators.
State-run entities like Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij have felt the effects of the tax increase acutely. Holland Casino reported a pre-corporate tax profit drop of approximately €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026 directly linked to the tax changes. Similarly, Nederlandse Loterij forecasted reductions in corporate tax, statutory levies, and profits amounting to about €16 million in 2025 and €34 million in 2026, which partly countered the additional revenue from the gambling tax.
Visits to casinos and gaming halls fell by around 11% year-on-year from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, with the number of gaming halls continuing to decline. Operators have acknowledged that tax increases have played a role in venue closures.
Despite these challenges, contributions from licensed operators to charities and sports showed little change between 2024 and 2025, with charitable payments increasing by a modest 1.8% and sports contributions declining slightly by 3.6%. The report found no substantial evidence that the initial tax hike significantly impacted charitable donations.
