Traditional uptime metrics for sportsbooks gauge availability across the entire period of a match. In contrast, wagering-weighted uptime focuses on a more commercially relevant question: Was the sportsbook accessible at the times when betting activity peaked? This insightful lens is highlighted through Bettormetrics’ analysis of the US Open, which demonstrates the importance of understanding operator performance in relation to active wagering, especially within the competitive US sports betting market.
The conventional method of measuring uptime typically reflects the total duration a sportsbook is live without considering the wagering levels at different stages of a match. While useful for assessing efficiency over time, this approach fails to differentiate between periods of high and low betting action. A sportsbook could maintain excellent uptime metrics throughout an event but be unavailable during crucial moments, such as tie-breaks. Thus, an operator might report satisfactory uptime while missing significant betting opportunities.
Bettormetrics tackled this by analyzing operator pricing and availability against matched wagering activity during 39 men’s singles matches at the US Open, evaluating 18 different operators. The study measured performance in two distinct ways: by duration (the share of total match time) and by wagering (the share of matched wagering that occurred when the sportsbook was available). This innovative wagering-weighted uptime reveals a stark contrast in sportsbook availability during the most action-packed moments.
For instance, the analysis showed that LeoVegas had a duration-weighted uptime of 97.8%, placing it among the higher performers alongside Superbet and Paddy Power. However, when looking at wagering-weighted uptime, LeoVegas fell to 88.3%, the lowest rate among the operators studied and notably below the 90% mark. This significant 9.5-percentage-point discrepancy underscores how traditional uptime can mask periods of high wagering activity where sportsbooks may have been unavailable.
During the Zverev versus Tabilo match, for example, LeoVegas demonstrated an impressive duration uptime of 98.5% but only managed to cover 61.5% of exchange wagering activity, indicating that its availability coincided with just over half of the betting action in that match. This further illustrates how duration metrics can provide a misleading view of a sportsbook's performance.
Bettormetrics emphasizes that the accuracy of uptime data hinges on quality data sources. Their findings rely on exchange pricing and wagering activity, distinct from conventional sportsbook operations and not directly correlating with lost revenue. Nonetheless, this approach offers valuable insights into betting patterns and operator performance. They apply a similar methodology across various betting environments where liquidity allows for effective analysis.
The US Open analysis identifies the potential for sportsbooks like Pinnacle to operate with a tight margin of 3.7% overround while also exhibiting lower than expected theoretical arbitrage exposure. In contrast, other operators like DraftKings and FanDuel demonstrated tighter pricing associated with higher arbitrage opportunities, showcasing the diverse approaches within the industry.
Bettormetrics anticipates enriching this dataset further by integrating prediction market data alongside exchange data. This combination will enhance performance analysis across a wider array of sports and markets, particularly resonating in the NFL and NBA domains.
Sabin Brooks, CEO of Bettormetrics, articulated that traditional uptime metrics fall short in revealing the relevance of operators' availability. He noted, “What the US Open clearly shows is that traditional uptime alone is no longer enough. It tells an operator how often it was available but not whether it was available when it mattered most.” He stressed that by correlating performance data with actual wagering activity, operators can gain insights that significantly impact their operations and strategies.
Methodologically, uptime, green, amber, and arbitrage metrics are calculated based both on duration and wagering participation, yielding startling contrasts in operator performance when analyzed through these dual lenses. With this evolving methodology, Bettormetrics aims to shift industry standards, offering deeper insights into sportsbook functionalities and performance evaluations.
