Data from the US Open illustrates a critical distinction between traditional sportsbook uptime and a more nuanced approach that assesses operator performance based on wagering activity. Conventional uptime metrics typically quantify how long a sportsbook is available during a match, applying a one-size-fits-all approach to every segment of the event. In contrast, wagering-weighted uptime focuses on whether sportsbooks are operational during the peak betting moments, revealing a more commercially relevant picture of performance.
Bettormetrics’ analysis of the US Open showcases how examining wagering patterns can provide insight into sportsbook availability when it matters most. By integrating prediction market data with existing exchange data, Bettormetrics aims to broaden this analysis across various sports and markets, enhancing the understanding of betting behaviors and operator responsiveness in the United States.
Traditional uptime is usually expressed as a percentage of match duration, measuring the time a market is active without considering the volume of bets at different points. While this is a useful efficiency metric, it treats all segments of a match as equally significant, overlooking the fact that betting interest varies widely over the course of an event. For instance, an operator might have equal downtime during a first set and a deciding tie-break, despite the latter being far more crucial for wagering activity.
As a result, a sportsbook may report a high uptime percentage while failing to be operational during critical wagering periods. This disconnect highlights the limitations of relying solely on traditional uptime metrics.
Bettormetrics’ methodology involved comparing operator pricing and availability with exchange pricing and matched wagering across 39 men’s singles matches during the US Open, focusing on 18 different operators. Performance is evaluated both by duration, reflecting total match time, and by wagering, which examines the share of matched betting that took place during the operative condition.
The data source is crucial; the analysis used exchange pricing and wagering data, which, while not reflective of sportsbook-specific revenue, offers an independent market-derived view of when betting activity is concentrated, highlighting when sportsbook availability is particularly valuable. The analysis employs the concept of “theoretical arbitrage,” meaning at least one sportsbook selection was priced favorably enough to suggest potential profit against the exchange.
LeoVegas, for example, recorded a duration-weighted uptime of 97.8%, placing it in the upper tier alongside competitors like Superbet and Paddy Power. However, its wagering-weighted uptime was significantly lower at 88.3%, the lowest among the operators sampled, indicating a substantial gap of 9.5 percentage points between the two metrics. This discrepancy was especially evident during the Zverev vs. Tabilo match, where LeoVegas had a 98.5% uptime in terms of duration, but only 61.5% during the most active betting windows. This pattern shows that LeoVegas’ downtime often coincided with the busiest wagering moments, which traditional metrics fail to capture.
In the broader analysis, Pinnacle emerged as an outlier with the tightest average overround of 3.7%, while also maintaining modest arbitrage exposure relative to exchange pricing. Pinnacle demonstrated a theoretical arbitrage exposure that was well below industry averages, signaling a different approach to pricing that contrasted starkly with the general trend of tighter margins correlating with higher arbitrage intervals.
Notably, Bet365 achieved the highest average arbitrage duration in the dataset during a specific five-set match involving Novak Djokovic, demonstrating an acute sensitivity to market movements. Meanwhile, DraftKings continues to enhance its competitive stance against FanDuel but remains rooted in its traditional set of metrics.
As Bettormetrics incorporates prediction-market data alongside exchange analytics, it seeks to refine its ability to measure sportsbook performance against actual wagering activity. This approach could transform industry standards, accommodating the evolving dynamics of sports betting and offering deeper commercial insights that traditional uptime metrics overlook.
Sabin Brooks, CEO of Bettormetrics, underscores the importance of evolving metrics that genuinely reflect sportsbook availability during critical wagering periods. He states, "What the US Open clearly shows is that traditional uptime alone is no longer enough. It tells an operator how often it was available but not whether it was available when it mattered most." This forward-looking perspective positions Bettormetrics as a leader in crafting sophisticated analyses that accurately define sportsbooks’ commercial performances and identify key operational opportunities across the industry.
