As the World Cup approaches its finale in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, sports betting operators are evaluating the financial returns of the tournament. With considerable speculation on the tournament's commercial impact, key figures in the industry are reflecting on whether the real value lies beyond just immediate revenues.
Prior to the opening match, investment bank Macquarie projected that global wagers could soar to $50 billion. However, during Entain's earnings call for fiscal year 2025, CEO Stella David revealed that the tournament's expected contribution to annual revenue might be modest. "It's not as big a thing as you might think," she informed analysts, addressing inquiries about Entain's projected earnings from the World Cup. "It's probably worth about 1% or something like that across the year as an upside. It's bigger than the Euros, but it's not as dramatic as you would think."
Though the estimate seems low, Ed Birkin, managing director at H2 Gambling Capital, argues that such high-profile events primarily function as customer acquisition tools rather than direct revenue generators. "Overall in markets that report it, [the World Cup is] accounting for around 7% of sports turnover," he stated. However, Birkin noted that much depends on the outcomes of the matches.
The tournament this year is notable for its expansion to 48 teams, which results in over 60% more matches. This change increases the chance of surprise results, like first-time qualifiers Cape Verde managing draws against established teams such as Spain and Uruguay. Birkin emphasized that these outcomes can influence operator performance significantly.
Chad Beynon, a gaming analyst at Macquarie Group, remarked on the importance of strong performances from leading teams. "If England makes it to the final, then you’re going to see those numbers completely smash what Entain had been saying," he explained.
Discussion also turned to the long-term benefits of the tournament. Super Group CEO Neal Menashe suggested that the critical advantage lies in converting sports betting customers into casino players, which he suggested often operates at around a 60%-70% success rate. Beynon concurred, stating that iGaming cross-selling from sports betting represents an essential goal for operators.
However, Birkin voiced skepticism regarding whether operators would achieve their ambitious cross-sell targets, particularly in the United States where iGaming expansion has been sluggish. "In the US, it’s only relevant for five states," he observed.
As operators contemplate their strategies, those like Bally’s Intralot plan to minimize expenses focused on the World Cup. CEO Robeson Reeves has indicated that rather than investing heavily in the tournament, Bally’s aims to attract customers from competitors once their marketing outlay reduces post-event.
This cautious approach is highlighted by the rising marketing costs during major sporting events. Birkin mentioned that operators could feel pressured to maintain visibility to avoid losing market share. DraftKings executive Greg Karamitis expressed enthusiasm for the potential to engage new customers during the World Cup, emphasizing that the tournament serves as a significant opportunity amid a traditionally slower sports calendar.
With the World Cup in North America for the first time since 1994, the competition for customer acquisition is fierce, especially with the sizable Hispanic market in the US.
Despite concerns about excessive spending during the World Cup, Birkin insists that operators must remain competitive. "If leading UK operators like William Hill, Ladbrokes, and Bet365 chose not to invest heavily, they risk losing out on significant customer acquisition," he warned.
As the sporting spectacle nears its conclusion, the operational efficiency of betting systems will be tested. Beynon highlighted that sportsbooks generally achieve profitability over new customers between months 12 and 18 as operators refine their promotional strategies. For Karamitis, success will hinge on how effectively operators adapt to the rapidly evolving narratives within the tournament itself, leveraging technology and marketing tactics to maximize engagement.
Ultimately, the World Cup has the potential to lay the groundwork for future player loyalty and revenue long after the final whistle has blown.
