France and Spain will face off in the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup on Tuesday, with kickoff scheduled for 3 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Live coverage will be provided by FOX.
As the match approaches, France is positioned as the -150 favorite to move forward, which translates into an implied probability of 60%. Conversely, Spain is a +144 underdog with a 41% chance, and Kalshi presents more attractive moneyline odds compared to DraftKings for both teams.
In terms of betting odds on Kalshi, predictions for the outcomes reflect the following:
– **France (moneyline in regulation):** 42% (+138)
– **Spain (moneyline in regulation):** 29% (+245)
– **Draw:** 30% (+233)
– **Over 2.5 goals scored:** 21% (+376)
– **France -1.5 goals:** 52% (-108)
Looking at the best bet for the match, a wager on France to advance at -150 seems prudent. Spain, despite starting the tournament with five clean sheets, finally allowed a goal during their 2-1 victory over Belgium, in which Fabian Ruiz and Mikel Merino scored to secure their path against France.
Meanwhile, France achieved a 2-0 victory over Morocco, with Kylian Mbappe netting his eighth goal of the tournament, putting him in a tie with Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot Award. At Kalshi, Mbappe is favored at -150 to clinch this award, while Messi is listed at +213.
The previous encounter between these teams took place during the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinals, where Spain emerged victorious in a thrilling 5-4 match, thanks to a goal from the budding star Lamine Yamal. Today, as Yamal celebrates his 19th birthday, he enters the World Cup after recovering from a hamstring injury, but has struggled, scoring only once in six matches.
France's defense, which faced challenges during group play, has tightened significantly in the knockout stage, yielding three consecutive clean sheets. On the other hand, Spain, characterized by a high-possession style, has displayed commendable defensive performance but has struggled to convert opportunities consistently across the tournament. For Spain to triumph over France, a marked improvement in their scoring will be essential.
Ultimately, a prediction of a 2-1 victory for France seems likely.
For player prop bets, Kylian Mbappe at +117 stands out. His extraordinary performance throughout the competition has been unmatched by all but Messi among the surviving teams. Mbappe maintains an average of a goal per match in the World Cup after scoring his 20th in the match against Morocco. Any bet on him at plus-money odds appears justifiable, substantiated by his status as the -150 favorite for the Golden Boot award at Kalshi. His achievement of reaching double digits in scoring by finishing the tournament as the sole player with ten or more goals is quite possible, given he has scored eight times across six games.
