Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin returned after attending iGB L!VE to share notable insights on the World Cup and issues in Europe. They began by discussing a Dutch gambling tax increase that has fallen significantly short of expectations. They also reviewed the latest on Ireland's newly implemented licensing framework.
In terms of prediction markets' activity during the World Cup, H2 tracked transactions closely. The Democratic Republic of Congo emerged as the most backed nation that did not win the tournament, while France, Spain, and Portugal topped the charts for teams expected to secure victory. An intriguing observation surfaced regarding matches that generated the highest losing trades, revealing a common theme that surprisingly appears to benefit traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets, however, seem to have miscalculated in these instances.
Turning to the Netherlands, the country has implemented a two-phase increase in its gambling tax, elevating it from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, and then to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Treasury anticipated that the hikes would yield an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. However, the actual figures fell drastically short, bringing in just €2 million extra in 2025, with estimates suggesting €57 million for 2026. Ed pointed out that blame cannot solely be placed on the tax rate, noting that new deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and the decrease in revenue following Euro 2024 also contributed to a smaller taxable base.
Land-based venues have faced notable repercussions as casino and gaming hall attendance dipped roughly 11% year-on-year, with several operators citing the tax increase as a reason for their closures. The discussion hinted at the complexity of tax hikes and their unpredictable outcomes for governments.
The pair also touched on the new licensing regime established under GRAI in Ireland, which became effective on July 1. While 89% of online betting is conducted onshore, it comprises only 35% of the total market since all iGaming activities remain offshore and unregulated. Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have begun operations to assist operators during this transition. Listeners were encouraged to tune in for H2's predictions regarding the potential market value as further regulations unfold.
Highlighting a key moment from iGB L!VE, Robin mentioned the Africa Summit, where regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya convened alongside the African Tax Administration Forum. This event coincided with a session led by the African iGaming Alliance, focusing on sustainable taxation, channelisation, and player protection and aiming to initiate an Africa Safer Gambling Week.
Before wrapping up, Ed, who moderated a tax panel at the summit, posed a thought-provoking question: if operators in certain jurisdictions just absorb or evade steep tax rates, does the industry retain its credibility in opposing high taxation in other regions?
