The Gibraltar government has officially introduced a regulatory framework designed for prediction markets, marking a significant step in its expansion into this sector after several months of preparation. This announcement follows the granting of two licenses and was published in the Gibraltar Gazette on Monday by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, under the leadership of Minister Nigel Feetham.
These regulations are part of the new Gambling Act 2025, aiming to establish a comprehensive approach that is both activity-based and risk-based in relation to prediction markets. The framework emphasizes the importance of maintaining market integrity, protecting participants, preventing financial crime, and upholding Gibraltar’s reputation.
Feetham highlighted that the framework is a result of extensive consultations with industry professionals, prospective operators, and investors. "This framework is the product of extensive engagement with industry professionals, prospective operators and investors over recent months. It reflects Gibraltar’s collaborative approach to regulation and demonstrates that innovation and robust regulatory standards can go hand in hand," he stated in a conversation with iGB.
With considerable interest from potential applicants, including well-known global businesses, an independent supervisory panel has been set up to oversee the implementation of this framework. Feetham pointed out that this panel has experience in regulating technology-driven markets and complex digital environments.
Feetham initially hinted at this regulatory move in April during a parliamentary session, revealing that an initial license had been issued to ADI Predictstreet. However, since the new Gambling Act had not yet taken effect, this license fell under previous legislation.
The newly released 24-page regulatory document details specific rules for operators in prediction markets. All event contracts must receive approval and certification from the Gambling Authority. Additionally, these contracts must be clear, capable of objective settlement, resistant to manipulation, and consistent with regulatory objectives. Operators are required to have systems in place to prevent market manipulation, insider trading, and misuse of confidential information. The authority retains the discretion to limit or prohibit certain prediction market contracts deemed inappropriate or contrary to public interest, including those related to criminal activities, death, serious injuries, terrorism, or wartime events.
While ADI’s license falls under a broader "betting intermediary" classification, the new legislation introduces prediction markets as a distinct statutory category, complete with specific authorization and operational requirements. Feetham remarked that this regulatory development is crucial for Gibraltar’s adaptability, especially in light of recent UK gambling tax increases that threatened the peninsula’s gaming sector, which heavily caters to the UK market.
“This bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets is the first of its kind in the world,” Feetham emphasized in the announcement.
WagerWire, a US betting marketplace, is set to become the second licensee in Gibraltar, having received approval to launch in June. Co-founder Travis Geiger expressed optimism about launching their prediction markets product aimed at B2B and B2C sectors by the NFL preseason and the beginning of international football in August. He believes Gibraltar's reputation in gaming will position its framework as a model for other jurisdictions.
