Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin have returned from iGB L!VE to discuss notable developments in the gambling sector, particularly focusing on recent statistics related to the World Cup and changes in the European market. They start by addressing a significant miss in revenue expectations following a tax increase on gambling in the Netherlands.
During their analysis of prediction market activity, they reveal that the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the most popular option among bettors, despite its failure to secure a World Cup win. Meanwhile, France, Spain, and Portugal emerged as the favorite bets to take the title.
An intriguing aspect of their findings involves matches with the most substantial losing trades. The discussion highlights unexpected commonalities among these matches, which may have benefited traditional sportsbooks as prediction markets struggled to respond accurately.
Turning to the Dutch gambling landscape, the Netherlands implemented a two-step tax increase, raising the rate from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, followed by a further increase to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Treasury projected additional revenue of €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026 from this hike. However, the actual figures reveal a stark contrast, with only €2 million anticipated in 2025 and an estimated €57 million for 2026.
Ed emphasizes that the disappointing outcomes cannot solely be attributed to the tax rate itself. Other factors, such as newly instituted deposit limits, restrictions on advertising, and the diminishing revenue spike following the Euro 2024 tournament, have contributed to a shrinking tax base.
Moreover, the tax increase seems to have noticeably impacted land-based venues, as casino and gaming hall attendance has declined by approximately 11% year-over-year, with various operators attributing closures to the tax hike. This situation underscores the potential disconnect between government expectations and actual market responses.
In their discussion on European regulation, the two analysts turn their attention to Ireland's new licensing regime, effective July 1. Presently, online betting in Ireland is predominantly onshore, with 89% compliance; however, the overall iGaming sector remains largely unregulated offshore at just 35%.
Platform providers such as Pragmatic Solutions are already assisting operators in navigating this transition. Harrison and Birkin share insights into potential market valuations as regulation becomes more widespread.
Highlighting the Africa Summit at iGB L!VE, Robin reflects on a successful event that convened regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, alongside industry representatives like the African Tax Administration Forum.
This summit included a high-profile session organized by the African iGaming Alliance, centering on sustainable taxation, channelization, and player protection, ultimately laying the groundwork for an Africa Safer Gambling Week.
In a thought-provoking moment, Ed, who moderated a tax-focused panel at the summit, poses a critical question: if operators in certain regions manage to adapt to or avoid punitive tax rates, can the industry maintain a robust argument against high taxation in other markets?
Listeners are encouraged to explore the full "Right to the Source" series for more extensive data and insights.
