Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin have returned to discuss intriguing developments in the world of gambling following iGB L!VE, beginning with a notable tax increase in the Netherlands that has significantly underperformed expectations. They also provide insights into the latest licensing updates from Ireland.
In anticipation of the World Cup, H2 has been monitoring prediction market activity. Among the countries not expected to win, the Democratic Republic of Congo received the most backing, while France, Spain, and Portugal emerged as the frontrunners for those predicted to take the trophy.
Interestingly, there were matches that generated the highest number of losing trades, revealing some surprises in the data that highlight a preference for traditional sportsbooks. The prediction markets seemed to misjudge these outcomes this time around.
Turning to the Dutch gambling tax adjustments, the Netherlands implemented a two-phase increase that raised the tax from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, followed by another increase to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Treasury had anticipated these hikes would yield an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. However, the reality fell short, with figures showing only an extra €2 million in 2025 and a projected €57 million for 2026. Ed Birkin noted that the disappointing revenue is not solely due to the tax rate itself; he attributed it to new deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and a decline in revenue expected after Euro 2024, which all contributed to a shrinking taxable base.
The effects of the tax hike on land-based venues have also been significant, with visits to casinos and gaming halls dropping approximately 11% year over year. Various operators have indicated that the tax increase has contributed to their closures. The discussion implies that tax hikes do not always produce the anticipated results for governments.
In other developments, the new licensing regime in Ireland under GRAI became effective on July 1. Currently, while 89% of online betting occurs onshore, this only accounts for 35% of the overall market since all iGaming operations remain unregulated offshore. Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have begun to assist operators with the transition to this new structure.
In a highlight from iGB L!VE, Robin mentioned the Africa Summit, which gathered regulators from various countries, including Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, alongside industry organizations such as the African Tax Administration Forum. This event featured discussions on sustainable taxation, channelization, and player protection, and advanced efforts towards a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week.
Ed moderated a tax panel during the summit, raising a critical question: if operators in certain markets manage to absorb or evade stringent tax rates, can the industry maintain a credible stance against high taxation in other regions?
