In the lead-up to Brazil's runoff election, Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 50.9% of the vote compared to Lula's 49.1%, based on an average of 13 polls conducted between October 13 and 19, reported by Congresso em Foco. While Bolsonaro leads in 12 of those polls, his margin has diminished in five out of six polls when compared to earlier runoff results. Lula's lead, noted at 5.6 percentage points on October 9, has now dwindled to just 2.2 points as of October 19. Specifically, the BTG/Nexus poll reflected a drop from a 3.2-point lead to only 0.6 points, while Datafolha showed a decrease from a 4-point gap to 2 points. Interestingly, Vox Brasil stands out as the only polling organization indicating support for Lula at 51% against 49%.
Support for the recently implemented ban on betting appears to have risen. A new Quaest poll indicated that 64% of respondents were aware of the ban and approved it, with an additional 8% expressing approval after being briefed on its details. This brings the total approval figure to 72%, a notable increase from 62% in Quaest’s late September survey.
It's important to note that the polling organizations have equal weight in averaging results and do not offer a comprehensive analysis of the election. Furthermore, the shifts in polling results should not be interpreted as statistically significant.
The public largely supports the ban on betting, with Datafolha reporting an approval rating of 78%. However, a poll from Indexa/Broadcast found that 63% of voters do not believe a candidate’s stance on betting would influence their voting decisions. Some supporters of Lula suspect that the ban may be harming his popularity, although the degree of its impact remains uncertain, particularly as the candidates did not address the issue during the debate on October 18.
The final televised debate is set for October 23 on TV Globo, just two days prior to the October 25 runoff. This decisive vote follows the first round where Bolsonaro garnered 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16%.
