The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has been marred by a scoring controversy involving married participants Miki Sudo and Nick Wehry, which has had a notable impact on betting markets. Following a recount, both competitors saw their total hot dog and bun (HDB) counts adjusted, pushing Sudo's total over the betting line set by sportsbooks.
Sudo emerged victorious in the women’s division, initially reported to have consumed 33 hot dogs, but judges later announced that her count was actually 38.75—a figure that surpassed the over/under lines established by various sportsbooks. DraftKings set the line at 38.5, while BetMGM did the same, and FanDuel had it slightly lower at 38.3.
George Shea, co-founder of Major League Eating, attributed the discrepancy to a counting oversight, indicating that the person tasked with tracking Sudo’s performance missed a plate, each containing five hot dogs. Meanwhile, USA Today raised questions about the integrity of the count, reporting that video footage seemed to show Sudo eating only 34 hot dogs. In response, Sudo firmly denied any implication of foul play. "My job is simply to eat the hot dogs, and I stand by the judges’ count of 38.75 (with a 0.25 deduction for a dropped bun)," she stated. She emphasized her complete lack of involvement in wagering, deeming it unethical.
Sudo suggested that the controversy highlights a need for the introduction of digital counting systems and off-site cameras to enhance accuracy in future contests.
BetMGM’s representative, Jack Kirvin, stated, "The over/under for Miki Sudo was set at 38.5 hot dogs, and the over was paid out as the winner in line with the official results."
The recount also had immediate effects on prediction markets. Kalshi, a platform for trading predictions, had set lines at 35 and 38 hot dogs. Initially, it seemed Sudo wouldn’t surpass either figure, causing the probability of her exceeding 35 to plummet from 66% to 1%. Following the announcement of her new total, more than $275,000 was traded on the site.
Though Polymarket did not offer bets on Sudo’s total, it did endorse the event, partnering with Joey Chestnut, who claimed his 18th title in the men's division while donning a Polymarket chain.
In addition to Sudo, her husband Wehry experienced a similar revision in his HDB count. Originally credited with 40, judges later reported he had consumed 45 hot dogs, thereby exceeding the sportsbooks’ line of 42.5 set by Caesars Sportsbook and 44.5 by Bet365.
Geoff Esper, another contestant, voiced concerns regarding the integrity of Wehry's final count, stating he had been pacing himself with Wehry during the competition. "I was pacing myself with Nick the entire contest, so I’m pretty sure of his number. I made sure to be half a dog ahead of him at the last second," he mentioned.
The revision shifted Wehry's placing from sixth to fourth, allowing him to secure $1,500 in prize money. Meanwhile, he reiterated his innocence regarding any potential cheating allegations. In a previous contest in 2024, he had sought a reduction of five hot dogs after touching the plates, without facing disciplinary actions from Major League Eating. This year, he maintained, "In my case, the counters just missed a plate, I guess. After 5-10 hot dogs, I have no idea where I am. The head judge counted 9 empties and one half-finished dog, and I got deducted half a dog for debris."
A year ago, amidst rising tension among bettors, ESPN’s David Purdum noted that there was significant backing for lower totals after Sudo commented on the size of the buns. Caesars’ Craig Mucklow reflected on the shifts in bettor sentiment, indicating that this time, bettors were likely caught off guard by the unexpected outcomes in these events.
