Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin are back after iGB L!VE, bringing fresh insights on the World Cup and developments in Europe. They start with the disappointing results of a Dutch gambling tax increase that has fallen significantly short of expectations. The discussion then shifts to the recent updates regarding Ireland's new licensing system.
In relation to the World Cup, H2 has been closely monitoring prediction market activities during the tournament. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo emerged as the most popular choice among countries not expected to win. Meanwhile, France, Spain, and Portugal received the highest support as favorites to take home the trophy. Some intriguing patterns regarding the matches with the highest losing trades also surfaced, revealing tendencies that surprisingly benefit traditional sportsbooks, indicating that prediction markets miscalculated several outcomes this time.
Turning to the Netherlands, the government implemented a two-phase increase in its gambling tax, raising it from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, and then to 37.8% in January 2026. The Treasury anticipated these hikes would yield an extra €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. The actual results, however, have been starkly different—contributing just €2 million more in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026. Ed emphasizes that the low figures cannot be solely attributed to the tax rate; new deposit limits, ad restrictions, and the waning effects of revenue spikes following Euro 2024 have also contributed to a diminished taxable base.
The impact on physical venues is more pronounced, as visits to casinos and gaming halls have seen a decline of about 11% year-on-year, with various operators citing the tax increase as a reason for some closures. This raises the question of whether tax increases achieve the outcomes governments anticipate.
The conversation also covers Ireland's new licensing regime under the Gambling Regulation and Assurance Intelligence (GRAI), which came into effect on July 1. Currently, 89% of online betting is onshore, but this represents only 35% of the total market, given the ongoing presence of unregulated offshore iGaming. Platform providers such as Pragmatic Solutions have already started supporting operators through this transitional period. Further insight from H2 reveals potential estimates for the market value as regulation expands.
Among the iGB L!VE discussion highlights was the Africa Summit, where Robin noted the gathering of regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, along with representatives from the African Tax Administration Forum. This event featured a high-level session hosted by the African iGaming Alliance that focused on sustainable taxation, channelization, and player protection, contributing toward the establishment of an Africa Safer Gambling Week.
Ed, who moderated a panel on taxation at the summit, posed a meaningful question: if operators in various markets can absorb or evade stringent tax rates, how credible can the industry be in opposing high taxes in other areas?
Listeners are encouraged to tune into the full Right to the Source series for more data and insights on these important issues.
