In today’s prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, nearly anything can be a subject for bets,
highlighting what some might call the end stage of capitalism. For instance, the market for guessing who will be named People’s Sexiest Man Alive by the end of the year has already generated over $108,000 at Polymarket, with nothing gambled on my name.
Markets focusing on specific phrases have also gained traction and can be easily manipulated. Considering this, we present our ‘expert’ predictions on the terms FOX announcers will likely use during the upcoming World Cup final between Spain and Argentina on Sunday. These predictions are based on a month’s worth of soccer viewing and odds sourced from Kalshi.
For those participating in trading on Kalshi, here are the suggested phrases to bet on.
**Bet ‘Yes’ on These Phrases**
Unfortunately, "1-v-1" didn't make our list, although FOX color commentator Stu Holden used it about 79 times in the semifinals. The exact number remains unverified, but if you were drinking each time "1-v-1" was mentioned, you'd definitely be in trouble. What about variations like "1-on-1" or "1-vs-1"?
Here are the picks.
**Nutmeg/Meg (-285 odds, 74% implied probability)**
The term "nutmeg" describes a clever play where an offensive player passes the ball through a defender's legs. Its usage might have slipped from memory since the last World Cup in Qatar in 2022, but when it is mentioned, it brings excitement to the play. One only needs to check out the viral moment of Lionel Messi nutmegging Raheem Sterling to understand its impact.
**VAR (-456, 82%)**
For anyone not familiar with soccer, the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) is known for disallowing goals—often due to the narrowest offside calls—which can be incredibly frustrating since goals themselves are hard to come by. If you're used to betting on over 2.5 goals, be prepared for VAR to potentially derail about half your wagers.
**Golden Boot (-108, 52%)**
The odds on "Golden Boot," awarded to the tournament's top goal scorer, seem surprising. Currently, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe of France are tied with eight goals. This could change if Mbappe scores heavily in the third-place match, in which his team will have added motivation to perform, as it may be manager Didier Deschamps' last game.
**Bet ‘No’ on These Words or Phrases**
Interestingly, though Polymarket offers a market focused on the word "goal" needing 75 mentions, Kalshi does not feature this type of market.
**MetLife (-1329/93%)**
The word "MetLife" will likely not be spoken during the game. FIFA prohibits announcing corporate stadium names, so the venue will simply be referred to as New York New Jersey Stadium. FIFA's strict banning of branding and advertisement outside official sponsors is well-known, especially given that FOX paid $450 million for the rights to broadcast the English-language versions of the World Cup.
**Super Bowl (-400, 80%)**
Despite the Jets and Giants sharing MetLife Stadium, it’s highly unlikely that any mention of the Super Bowl will arise during the broadcast. While the Jets have been struggling, the Giants have a bit more history to discuss from their last Super Bowl win in 2012. There simply isn’t a reason for announcers to reference the Super Bowl regarding either team.
Let's enjoy the football—or soccer—and hopefully see betting success based on these carefully chosen predictions.
