As the NFL gears up for the 2026-2027 season, prediction markets have already hit a significant milestone. In just the first week, Kalshi and Polymarket achieved a combined trading activity exceeding $1 billion, setting a new record, according to various reports. Kalshi led the charge with an impressive NFL volume of $983.4 million. This activity surged following the Kansas City Chiefs' decisive 31-10 victory over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football, effectively marking the busiest week ever for prediction markets.
Before this primetime clash, it was clear that the landscape of prediction markets was on track for substantial growth. The total trading volume for the week reached a staggering $15.9 billion, reflecting a 16% increase from the previous week, according to Bank of America.
During Week 1, Kalshi and Polymarket emerged as frontrunners in this bustling arena. Kalshi's market share dipped slightly to 82%, down from 86% the prior week, but it maintained a significant advantage over Polymarket, which is its closest competitor. Polymarket distinguished itself with the highest number of app downloads at 762,000, surpassing Kalshi, DraftKings, and FanDuel. This figure illustrated a remarkable 13,509% increase in downloads, comprising 25% of total category downloads, as stated by Polymarket.
Several operators witnessed substantial growth after the Labor Day weekend, which lacked NFL games but featured college football. Notable gains included DraftKings and Underdog, with increases of 125% and 119%, respectively. Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Novig each experienced at least a 30% rise, with Polymarket leading this group with a 46% weekly increase.
Interestingly, Kalshi's Sunday trading volume exceeded previous daily records by only $34 million, a surprising change given that Sunday figures typically far outweigh those of College Football Saturdays. Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley speculated that Kalshi might be focusing too heavily on college sports in this context.
Kelley also pointed to an uptick at Robinhood, which may have contributed to Kalshi's decline. Robinhood recently invested in Crypto.com and established a partnership to channel NFL contracts through OG.com, which is regulated for prediction markets. This deal, coupled with a 40% weekly increase at Crypto.com, may explain Kalshi's recent challenges.
Despite the fluctuating dynamics, Crypto.com still managed to post $350 million in trading volume for the week, as highlighted by The PM Pulse, a newsletter that collaborates with Aldrin Research to track industry trends. With over $15 billion in weekly activity registered by Kalshi and Polymarket, four additional operators also saw trading volumes exceeding $300 million, with Novig reporting a nearly 34% increase attributed to a successful Sydney Sweeney advertisement.
Looking forward, prediction markets anticipate increased activity as prominent teams make their primetime appearances in Week 2. On Thursday, the Buffalo Bills are set to debut at Highmark Stadium against the Detroit Lions. This game is expected to attract significant attention, especially from the "Bills Mafia," and could enhance weekly predictions market totals. New York stands as one of the largest markets for sports betting and predictions in the U.S.
The week will culminate on Monday Night Football with a duel between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, who are currently viewed as frontrunners for the Super Bowl. As of Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi assigned a 75% probability for the Rams to claim victory over the Giants.
Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart expressed anticipation for the matchup, stating, "It’s going to be a great test for our team."
