On Wednesday, after a week filled with negotiations and missed deadlines with Brussels, Giorgia Meloni’s government finalized a budget of around €26 billion ($29 billion). At the subsequent press conference, the Prime Minister revealed that €700 million would be generated from gambling revenues. This figure aligns with the Draft Budgetary Plan sent to Brussels earlier this month, which anticipates €718 million from gambling for both 2027 and 2028, and €478 million for 2029.
However, Meloni did not specify who would bear the financial burden, stating this was "not a budget against anyone," but rather a request for "those with fewer problems to lend a hand." Gambling industry leaders may contest this portrayal. The details will only become clear once the bill's full articles and technical reports are available; in the meantime, the industry is evaluating its options.
The high street appears to be the primary source of this revenue. Currently, Italy’s licenses for slot machines, betting shops, and bingo halls are set to expire on December 31. An effort to redefine the operational geography of such venues fell through in August, leaving existing concessions to be extended at a cost. The current extension is valued at about €232.76 million annually.
Lucas Zavarise, the government and regulatory affairs manager at Gaming Laboratories International, anticipates that the revenue will likely come from increased fees for existing concessions and a potential one-point increase in the PREU tax on slots and video lottery terminals, with minimal changes for online gambling.
Quirino Mancini from the law firm WH Partners believes the targets are indeed achievable, predicting a mix of elevated PREUs and higher fees for concession extensions, rather than a significant rise in online gambling taxes. Stefano Sbordoni of Sbordoni & Partners concurs that paid extensions seem unavoidable but cautions that increasing taxes on shops might harm an already struggling business.
The numbers back his concerns. According to ADM, Italy’s regulator, slot machine revenues declined by 5.7% in the second quarter of the year. Additionally, the Court of Auditors reports that gambling tax revenues fell by roughly €200 million in the first eight months of the year. Some reports suggest that the funds may instead derive from the aggio, the commission that operators retain from lottery sales, as well as from online gaming.
Giulio Coraggio of DLA Piper expresses skepticism regarding the feasibility of these revenue goals. He believes the government’s expectations are misaligned with market conditions. In his view, whether income comes from a rise in PREU on ordinary slot machines or higher concession fees for retail, the outcome will be the same: decreased profit margins for operators, which could lead to players shifting to offshore sites that offer better terms and evade taxation in Italy.
If retail gambling emerges as the main target, online gambling serves as a less favored and potentially troublesome alternative. Not long ago, 46 operators collectively paid €7 million each for licenses to operate in Italy’s revamped online market, a fee 35 times higher than previous costs. Mancini notes that operators made their licensing decisions based on a stable economic framework. New substantial charges could significantly undermine the investment assumptions and damage the Italian gambling licensing system’s credibility.
Sbordoni highlights that tax stability for online licensees is safeguarded by primary law for the nine years of their concession. He warns that new levies may erode the public’s trust in the state.
A practical concern for operators includes the need to upgrade their systems to align with ADM’s new technical requirements. This process is complex enough that the regulator has postponed the compliance deadline to February 15, 2027. Adding financial pressures now could strain operators during a sensitive transition, especially as Italy prohibits gambling advertising, making it harder to mitigate these challenges by marketing.
Experts consistently warn of one emerging victor in this scenario: the unlicensed operator. "The primary risk is illegal gambling," says Sbordoni. Mancini warns this could unintentionally drive players toward unlicensed venues, while Coraggio observes that the additional costs and higher PREU may drive the weakest retail operators out, leaving a void that illegal entities could exploit.
Italy’s regulatory body is actively engaging in enforcement efforts. Zavarise notes that ADM blocked 44% more unauthorized gambling sites in 2025 compared to the previous year, a positive stride; however, he cautions that while blocking illegal sites is necessary, it is insufficient alone. Coraggio warns that Italy risks losing the high channelization rates achieved over the last fifteen years.
In a parallel development, the British government also announced its autumn budget on Wednesday. Chancellor John Healey declared an increase in machine games duty from 20% to 25% for higher stakes machines, though he exempted pubs and seaside arcades.
Are European nations increasingly using gambling as a fiscal resource? Zavarise thinks so, noting that recent tax hikes in the UK and the Netherlands support this perspective. Additionally, proposals for a 1% EU-wide levy on online gambling are gaining traction in the European Parliament, despite a low likelihood of unanimous approval.
Coraggio cites the UK as a cautionary tale; the nation nearly doubled remote gaming duty, raising it from 21% to 40% in April, prompting significant increases in stakes placed with illegal operators. He acknowledges that while this boom in illegal operations isn’t solely due to tax increases, current affordability checks and stake limits have exacerbated the situation.
Mancini voices skepticism regarding the primary intentions behind these tax increases, suggesting that gambling has emerged as a politically palatable way for many European governments to generate additional revenue.
Despite the current climate, the game isn't over for Italian operators. Unlike in the UK, where budget initiatives seldom change after their announcement, Mancini emphasizes that Italy’s fiscal proposals must soon be examined, debated, and potentially modified by Parliament, with votes expected in the Chamber of Deputies by mid-December and in the Senate by year’s end.
Coraggio urges lawmakers to pair any sector contributions with an effective strategy against illegal operators, advocating measures like payment blocks, social media ad restrictions, and the launch of a retail tender. He warns that without such plans, Italy risks replicating the UK’s recent missteps shortly after witnessing their negative outcomes.
