Brazil faces the potential loss of BRL 73 billion in tax revenue over the next four years due to a provisional ban on its regulated online gambling market. This projection comes from a study by LCA Consultores, which estimates a tax shortfall of approximately EUR 13.14 billion linked to Provisional Measure No. 1394. The ban could impact around 10,000 direct industry jobs and an additional 5,500 indirectly, with direct employment salaries totaling around BRL 460 million annually.
The prohibition of regulated services is expected to push the most active users toward illegal gambling websites, stripping them of the protections they previously enjoyed. Companies within the regulated market are reportedly seeking up to BRL 2.55 billion in compensation for license fees already paid.
In addition, the gambling sector has provided over BRL 1.1 billion (approximately EUR 195.25 million) to support the Brazilian Serie A football league this year. The loss of gambling operations would significantly affect this source of funding.
Despite the ban, the President has the option to revoke the decree, and Congress could also overturn it. The implications of this situation may be complex, particularly with Brazil's presidential elections approaching in October 2026. Current President Lula finds himself in a tight race against Flavio Bolsonaro, trailing by 2% after the first round of voting on October 4, 2026, with a runoff scheduled for October 25.
