With every major football tournament comes a familiar set of concerns. Ten years ago, regulators gearing up for the World Cup or the European Championship typically emphasized the harms of gambling, excessive advertising, and the dangers to vulnerable consumers caught up in a month-long betting frenzy. However, this summer, the tone from regulators across Europe has shifted considerably.
As the FIFA World Cup approaches, regulators and industry bodies have focused their warnings on illegal gambling operators. France’s l'Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) has pointed out the dangers of prediction markets, illegal affiliates, and influencers. In the Netherlands, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has intensified oversight of both legal and illegal marketing practices. Meanwhile, in the UK, attention has turned to black market activities, with a particular concern that unlicensed operators may use the tournament to expand their reach.
This noticeable shift raises questions. Have regulators turned away from prioritizing player protection in the regulated market? Do they now view illegal operators as a greater threat than licensed businesses?
Regulators and experts suggest the situation is more complex. The emphasis on illegal gambling does not come at the expense of player protection; rather, it highlights a belief that consumer safeguards and channelisation are interconnected. Essentially, regulators are acknowledging that protections are only effective when consumers remain engaged with licensed operators.
Ismail Vali, president of Gaming Compliance International (GCI), emphasizes the evolving understanding of risk within the industry. “Player protection remains critically important, and that has not changed,” he states. “What has changed is the industry’s understanding of where many of the risks now exist.” Historically, the focus was largely on licensed operators, as they were the most visible entities regulators could monitor, measure, and enforce compliance with. Today, that focus is shifting toward the systemic risk posed by unlicensed operations.
As Vali puts it, “The regulated sector is the visible risk. Illegal gambling is increasingly the structural risk to marketplace outcomes.” Tools such as self-exclusion systems and other consumer protection measures can only function effectively if consumers utilize licensed operators. “A self-exclusion scheme only protects a consumer if that consumer does not immediately migrate to an illegal operator,” Vali adds.
This evolution has significant implications. For years, policy discussions centered around regulating licensed entities. Increasingly, regulators are shifting their inquiries from whether operators comply with existing rules to whether consumers are staying within the regulated landscape.
The Netherlands serves as a clear example of this evolution. The Dutch government has revealed plans to enhance consumer protections through stricter regulations on gambling activities and advertising while also seeking more authority for the KSA to tackle illegal gambling. While some may see these aims as contradictory—tougher rules could push consumers toward unregulated options—the KSA views the relationship as interconnected.
“The illegal and legal market are communicating vessels,” the regulator explains. “When strengthening player protections, it is likely some players will drift away from the legal to illegal offering. To contain this, it is necessary to battle the illegal market even harder and more effectively.” This perspective is gaining traction in European regulatory circles, where there is a growing consensus that consumer protection and black market enforcement are not opposing priorities but rather complementary efforts.
KSA maintains that “player protection is our number one priority,” yet it stresses the point that “on the black market, player protection is far worse.” Therefore, as they bolster protections for consumers, they also commit to combating illegal markets with increased rigor. The World Cup exacerbates these concerns, especially because KSA has noted a spike in sports betting activity during previous tournaments, particularly among young adults. “Our main concern is that vulnerable groups, such as 18-24 year olds, will start betting during this period,” the regulator states. In response, it has launched awareness campaigns and intensified surveillance of advertising by licensed and unlicensed operators.
Similarly, the ANJ in France reflects this dual approach. The regulator dismisses the notion that concern for illegal gambling is a recent issue, asserting that France has long emphasized channelisation, maintaining an estimated channelisation rate of about 85%. “We don’t see a specific emergence of black market concerns in France,” ANJ states. “The fight against the illegal offer has always been a priority since the beginning of gambling regulation in France.” Concurrently, ANJ underscores that player protection remains central to its strategy surrounding the World Cup.
To that end, ANJ has been vigilant in monitoring marketing activities, collaborating with operators and advertising professionals to manage promotional activities during the tournament. They have also initiated a responsible gambling campaign named “Zone à risques.” “In France, our motto is that gambling must be recreational,” ANJ explains, stating that while operators can present attractive offers, they must also ensure that gambling is treated as entertainment.
Nonetheless, ANJ acknowledges that technological advancements have changed the regulatory landscape. They note the increasing risks associated with illegal gambling practices, including the use of affiliates and the emergence of new types of games such as prediction markets. As illegal gambling becomes both more accessible and harder to differentiate from regulated activities, ANJ calls for anti-black market initiatives and player protection obligations to evolve in tandem. “The ANJ’s efforts to combat illegal gambling go hand in hand with the increased demands placed on legal operators to better fulfil their obligations to identify and support problem gamblers,” it states.
Some industry observers suggest that enhanced consumer protection practices are also influencing this dialogue. Victoria Reed, chief executive of Better Change, contends that the sector has made significant strides in consumer protection compared to previous tournaments. “This World Cup will see more focus on consumer safety than ever before due to the growing population of safer gambling professionals in the industry as well as advancement in player tracking technology,” she asserts. Reed believes that player protection has become standard practice, reducing the need for external pressure on operators and regulators.
Even so, the challenge persists. While player protection practices have become ingrained within licensed operations, the rise of illegal gambling platforms poses significant risks, including a lack of consumer safeguards. “There is no age verification, no safer gambling interactions or controls, no self-exclusion scheme,” Reed points out. “In fact, the illegal market targets those who have excluded from regulated sites.” Thus, the increased focus on illegal gambling should be viewed not as a retreat from responsible gambling principles but as an extension of them.
In contrast, the regulatory stance in the UK is more cautious. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has expressed concerns about unlicensed operators exploiting the World Cup to attract new customers. However, the UK regulator has refrained from affirming any noticeable or lasting shifts in consumer behavior. A spokesperson mentioned that early indicators remain stable, suggesting that significant changes won't be evident until early July. The UK regulator emphasizes that addressing illegal gambling and ensuring consumer protection within the licensed market remain paramount, asserting that both areas are important.
Research from GCI indicates that illegal gambling is becoming more sophisticated and entrenched in digital systems, with $5.9 trillion in online gambling value attributed to unregulated operators in 2025. GCI's estimates suggest that illegal operators constitute a sizable portion of global online gambling revenue, but such figures are often debated across the industry, depending on methods of measurement.
More telling than the numbers is the method illegal operators use to engage customers. Unlike in the past, they no longer rely solely on obscure offshore websites. Now, they draw in clients via search engines, affiliates, messaging platforms, social media, streaming services, mobile apps, and sophisticated digital marketing campaigns. Vali argues this shift fundamentally alters gambling regulation by introducing a competition not just between licensed firms and regulators, but across a blend of regulated and unregulated pathways vying for the same customers within a shared digital space.
As the World Cup unfolds, it may transform from merely an event showcasing illegal gambling activity to one that highlights the evolution of regulatory perspectives. Five years ago, policymakers primarily scrutinized whether licensed operators adequately safeguard consumers. Today, they also consider if consumer protection can succeed if individuals abandon the regulated market altogether.
Insights from France, the Netherlands, and the UK suggest player protection remains as vital as ever, but there is a growing understanding of the connection between consumer protection and channelisation. Looking ahead, regulators will face the broader challenge of not only instituting new regulations but also evaluating their effectiveness in generating better marketplace outcomes. As Vali points out, success shouldn't only be gauged by how well licensed operators are regulated; it should also encompass whether the overall marketplace is evolving to be safer and more secure, ultimately driving consumers toward regulated options. For European regulators, this could become one of the defining questions in gambling policy over the next decade.
