Analysts say Macau’s casino industry should return to pre-Covid levels by 2026. Improved visitation and a stronger economy are expected to boost mass-market gaming this year.
Macau can expect a happy new year and an even better 2026, according to analysts tracking the city’s post-Covid recovery.
Casinos in the world’s premier gaming hub saw a 2% dip in gross gaming revenue (GGR) last month, to MOP18.2 billion (£1.813 billion/€2.184 billion/$2.27 billion). But it was the only monthly decline since the city reopened for business in January 2023.
The drop was widely attributed to a three-day visit from Chinese president Xi Jinping. Xi was in town 18-20 December to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the former Portuguese colony’s return to Chinese rule.
He also presided over the inauguration of Macau’s new chief executive, Sam Hou Fai, who succeeded Ho Iat-Seng. The inauguration was 20 December. Sam heads up the special administrative region’s (SAR) sixth government, continuing a campaign to diversify the local economy beyond gaming.
Macau’s winning streak expected to continue
Last year, GGR in Macau grew 23.9% to MOP226.78 billion, beating the official target of MOP216 billion. That’s about 78% of the MOP292.5 billion achieved in 2019. And next year, Jeffries analyst David Katz contends, the industry could rise to that level again.
As reported by financial website Seeking Alpha, Katz says the SAR will get a lift from “monetary policy initiatives focused on improving the health of the overall consumer” in Macau.
Other positive indicators include stronger tourism and a growing mass gaming segment.
Macau expects 35 million visitors in 2025, up by almost a quarter over last year. As usual, about 70% will hail from mainland China, aided by relaxed visa rules that allow longer stays. But international tourism is on the upswing too. Last year, more than 2.4 million visitors from outside Asia came to Macau, an increase of 66% year-on-year. The city is actively wooing them with increased non-gaming attractions like sporting and cultural events, showcased at conventions like ITB Berlin, the world’s largest travel trade show, coming 4-6 March.
Last year, Fitch Ratings forecast an 8% increase in Macau’s gross domestic product (GGR) for 2025, reported Macau Business. “This will be supported by the ongoing revival in the gaming tourism sector, expanded handling capacity and favourable policy initiatives,” said analysts George Xu and Jeremy Zook.
Macau could exceed GGR target
This year’s official GGR target is MOP240 billion, per the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). But in a 2024 report, Citigroup analysts pointed out that the DICJ tends to underestimate the totals.
According to the Macau Daily Times, Citi’s George Choi and Timothy Chau projected a 7% increase in GGR year-over-year, for a total of MOP244 billion. They forecast that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) would be up 13% for 2025.
“If past trends continue, there could be considerable upside potential to Citi’s GGR forecast,” the team added. More smart tables “will also allow casinos to better understand the true value of their players through detailed data collection on their gaming behaviours.”
