The Netherlands’ gambling tax hike has raised questions about the limits of taxing a regulated market.
The Netherlands’ recent increase in its gambling tax has fallen well short of the government’s revenue expectations, according to a joint monitoring report by the Ministry of Finance and the gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).
The study highlights how regulatory changes and market dynamics have undermined tax revenues between 2024 and early 2026.
Tax rise delivers far less than forecast
The gambling tax rise happened in two phases. It was first increased from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025, followed by another increase to 37.8% on 1 January 2026.
The Treasury had predicted these hikes would generate approximately €108 million ($122.6 million) more in 2025, and an additional €216 million in 2026. However, the actual additional revenue was far lower, registering approximately €2 million extra in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026, relative to 2024 levels.
The authority points to a shrinking tax base as the key explanation for the revenue gap, although the report cautions that isolating the precise contribution of the tax increase from other concurrent market changes is not fully possible.
The tax is calculated on the sector’s GGR. Several factors contributed to a reduced GGR, including:
- New player-protection rules in October 2024: Monthly net-deposit limits were fixed at €300 for younger adults and €700 for those aged 24 and over.
- Advertising and sponsorship curbs: Bans on TV programme sponsorship were introduced on 1 July 2024, and on sports teams, clubs and kits from 1 July 2025, which reduced marketing reach.
- Market effects: The post-UEFA Euro 2024 revenue spike faded away, while ongoing regulatory scrutiny created uncertainty.
These harm-reduction measures, while beneficial for consumer protection, directly reduced the taxable gambling volume. Furthermore, some land-based operators closed venues or restructured, citing the tax increase as a contributing factor in compressing operating margins.
In KSA’s 2025 annual report, data also suggested a fall in the market share for licensed operators.
State operators and market feel the strain
The tax increase notably affected two state-controlled entities, Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij. Holland Casino’s profits before corporate tax decreased by about €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026 due to the tax increase.
Nederlandse Loterij expected reductions in corporate tax, statutory levies and profits of about €16 million in 2025 and roughly €34 million in 2026. These declines partially offset the additional gambling tax revenue gained.
Casino and gaming hall visits fell by around 11% year-on-year from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026. Gaming hall numbers also continued to decline. Operators have publicly acknowledged tax increases as a factor in venue closures.
Contributions from licensed operators to charities and sports remained largely unchanged between 2024 and 2025. Payments to charities increased modestly by 1.8%, while sporting contributions slightly declined by 3.6%. The report found no robust evidence that the initial tax rise materially affected charitable giving.
